Budget

CBO analyzed the Administration’s request for discretionary funding and some proposals that affect mandatory spending. The need for CBO to support ongoing legislative activity prevented the agency from completing a comprehensive analysis.

CBO provides additional detail about its latest baseline projections, which were published on July 1, 2021. The projected deficit for 2021 is $3.0 trillion, $126 billion less than the deficit recorded last year.

If current laws generally remain unchanged, the federal budget deficit will total $3.0 trillion and federal debt will reach 103 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2021, CBO estimates, and real GDP will grow by 7.4 percent in calendar year 2021.

View CBO’s budget infographics to see how much the federal government spent and took in during fiscal year 2020, as well as broader trends in the budget over the past few decades.

This document provides additional information about the baseline budget projections that CBO released on February 11, 2021.

CBO presents its projections of the federal budget for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change. Growth in revenues would be outpaced by growth in spending, leading to rising deficits and debt.

If current laws governing taxes and spending generally remain unchanged, CBO projects, in 2021, the federal budget deficit will total $2.3 trillion, federal debt will reach 102 percent of GDP, and real GDP will grow by 3.7 percent.

CBO periodically issues a compendium of policy options and their effects on the federal budget. This document provides estimates of the budgetary savings from 83 options that would decrease federal spending or increase federal revenues.

On February 10, the Administration transmitted its annual set of budgetary proposals to the Congress. CBO estimates that in the coming decade deficits under those proposals would be smaller and debt held by the public would be lower than amounts in CBO’s baseline projections—but larger than the Administration projected. CBO’s estimates do not account for changes to the nation’s economic or fiscal outlook arising from the recent public health emergency.

From the end of 2008 to 2019, the amount of federal debt held by the public nearly tripled. This report describes federal debt, various ways to measure it, CBO’s projections for the coming decade, and the consequences of its growth.