Long-Term Economic Analysis

In addition to projecting economic developments over the next 10 years, CBO also projects economic conditions for the decades ahead—primarily as a part of developing CBO’s Long-Term Budget Outlook. Key factors affecting the long-term economic outlook include the aging of the population, productivity growth, and interest rates. CBO analyzes the long-term economic effects of alternative budget policies as well.

  • United States Capitol Building in Washington, DC
    Report
    The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget

    CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.

  • Report
    The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook

    The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.

  • Report
    The 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook

    The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook according to CBO's extended baseline projections, which show budget deficits and federal debt held by the public growing steadily in relation to gross domestic product over the next three decades.

  • Report
    The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook

    CBO presents its projections of the federal budget for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change. Growth in revenues would be outpaced by growth in spending, leading to rising deficits and debt.

  • United States Capitol Building in Washington, DC
    Report
    An Overview of CBOLT: The Congressional Budget Office Long-Term Model

    CBOLT is the main analytical tool that CBO uses to make long-term projections of the economy and federal budget. Those projections help shed light on fiscal challenges that extend beyond CBO’s standard 10-year projection window.