CBO analyzed the Administration’s request for discretionary funding and some proposals that affect mandatory spending. The need for CBO to support ongoing legislative activity prevented the agency from completing a comprehensive analysis.
On February 10, the Administration transmitted its annual set of budgetary proposals to the Congress. CBO estimates that in the coming decade deficits under those proposals would be smaller and debt held by the public would be lower than amounts in CBO’s baseline projections—but larger than the Administration projected. CBO’s estimates do not account for changes to the nation’s economic or fiscal outlook arising from the recent public health emergency.
Under the President’s proposals, deficits would total $9.9 trillion over the 2020–2029 period, $1.5 trillion less than the deficits in CBO’s current-law baseline. Federal debt held by the public would increase from 78 percent of GDP in 2019 to 87 percent in 2029.
Over the next 10 years, the cumulative deficit under the President’s proposals would be $3.0 trillion less than the $12.4 trillion in CBO’s baseline. The deficit would average 3.7 percent of GDP, CBO estimates.
Under the President’s proposals, budget deficits from 2018 through 2027 would total nearly one-third less than those in CBO’s baseline projections, ranging between 2.6 percent and 3.3 percent of GDP, down from 3.6 percent in 2017.