Economy

CBO regularly assesses the state of the economy and prepares economic projections that underlie the agency’s projections for the federal budget and cost estimates for proposed legislation. CBO also produces studies on specific economic issues, such as trends in productivity and the condition of labor markets, and examines the economic impact of significant proposed changes in federal spending programs and the federal tax system.

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR CY 2021

(As of )

REAL GDP GROWTH (Q4/Q4)

7.4%

INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)

2.8%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q4)

4.6%

INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills, Q4)

0.0%

  • Blog Post

    CBO will publish The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032 at 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, May 25. A press briefing for credentialed members of the press will be held from 3:00 to 4:00 p.m. that day.

  • Report

    CBO assesses its two-year and five-year economic forecasts and compares them with forecasts of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus, an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts.

  • Report

    CBO provides additional detail about its latest baseline projections, which were published on July 1, 2021. The projected deficit for 2021 is $3.0 trillion, $126 billion less than the deficit recorded last year.

  • Report

    If current laws generally remain unchanged, the federal budget deficit will total $3.0 trillion and federal debt will reach 103 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2021, CBO estimates, and real GDP will grow by 7.4 percent in calendar year 2021.

  • Interactive

    This workbook allows users to define and analyze alternative economic scenarios by specifying differences in the values of four economic variables relative to the values for those variables underlying CBO's February 2021 projections.

  • Report

    CBO presents its projections of the federal budget for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change. Growth in revenues would be outpaced by growth in spending, leading to rising deficits and debt.

  • Report

    This document provides additional information on the economic forecast that CBO initially released on February 1, 2021.

  • Report

    If current laws governing taxes and spending generally remain unchanged, CBO projects, in 2021, the federal budget deficit will total $2.3 trillion, federal debt will reach 102 percent of GDP, and real GDP will grow by 3.7 percent.

  • Report

    CBO projects that the economic expansion that began in mid-2020 will continue. Real GDP is projected to return to its prepandemic level in mid-2021. The number of people employed is projected to return to its prepandemic level in 2024.

  • Report

    By providing financial support to households, businesses, and state and local governments, federal laws enacted in response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic will offset part of the deterioration in economic conditions brought about by the pandemic.

  • Report

    CBO’s economic forecasts have been comparable in quality to those of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus. Large errors in CBO’s forecasts tend to reflect challenges faced by all forecasters.

  • Report

    How much do companies benefit from corporate inversions? In this report, CBO analyzes the reasons for and effects of inversions. CBO also projects how inversions and certain other strategies will affect future U.S. corporate tax revenues.