CBO regularly assesses the state of the economy and the impact on the economy of proposed changes in federal spending and taxes. Analysts prepare economic projections that underlie CBO’s projections for the federal budget and cost estimates for proposed legislation; study major aspects of the economy such as trends in productivity and long-term unemployment; and examine the economic impact of changes in the nation’s tax system or reforms to federal programs.
Economy
featured work
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024Feb 2014 - Under current law, deficits will drop through 2015 but rise thereafter, boosting the already high federal debt, CBO projects. Economic growth will be solid in the near term, but unemployment will not drop below 6.0 percent until 2017.
The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market Feb 2014 - Since the recession ended in June 2009, employment has risen sluggishly and the unemployment rate has fallen only partway back to its prerecession level. This CBO report discusses the reasons for the slow recovery of the labor market.
Choices for Deficit Reduction: An UpdateDec 2013 - Federal debt is projected to rise significantly over the long term. What policy changes could reduce future deficits and thus lower the trajectory of federal debt? What criteria might be used to evaluate those policy changes?
Long-Term Budget OutlookSep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
The Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization ActJun 2013 - S. 744 would boost economic output—CBO projects—by 3.3 percent in 2023 and by 5.4 percent in 2033. Employment, investment, and productivity would increase, but average wages would be less than under current law until 2025.
S. 744, Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization ActJun 2013 - Cost estimate for the bill as reported by the Senate Committee on the Judiciary on May 28, 2013, including the amendments made in the star print of June 6, 2013.
Macroeconomic Effects of Alternative Budgetary PathsFeb 2013 - CBO examined three budgetary paths that would increase or reduce budget deficits relative to current law. Through 2023, those paths would result in considerably different trajectories of federal debt and the nation’s output and income.
What Accounts for the Slow Growth of the Economy After the Recession?Nov 2012 - During the three years following the recession in 2008 and 2009, the economy’s output grew at less than half the rate seen, on average, during other economic recoveries in the United States since the end of World War II.
The Economic Impact of the President's 2013 BudgetApr 2012 - CBO analyzes the potential effects of the President's budget on the economy and, in turn, the impact of those macroeconomic effects on the federal budget.
latest work
Revisions to CBO’s Projection of Potential Output Since 2007
reportFebruary 28, 2014The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment: Working Paper 2014-02
working paperFebruary 28, 2014U.S. Labor Market Has Recovered Slowly and Only Partially Since the End of the Recession
blog postFebruary 27, 2014Economic Growth Is Projected to Be Solid in the Near Term, but Weakness in the Labor Market Will Probably Persist
blog postFebruary 26, 2014CBO’s Outlook for the Economy
presentationFebruary 24, 2014Presentation to the National Association for Business Economics
blog postFebruary 24, 2014Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output in 2013
reportFebruary 21, 2014Breakfast with Reporters
blog postFebruary 19, 2014
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