Economy

CBO regularly assesses the state of the economy and prepares economic projections that underlie the agency’s projections for the federal budget and cost estimates for proposed legislation. CBO also produces studies on specific economic issues, such as trends in productivity and the condition of labor markets, and examines the economic impact of significant proposed changes in federal spending programs and the federal tax system.

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR CY 2021

(As of )

REAL GDP GROWTH (Q4/Q4)

3.7%

INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)

1.7%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q4)

5.3%

INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills, Q4)

0.1%

  • Report

    CBO presents its projections of the federal budget for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change. Growth in revenues would be outpaced by growth in spending, leading to rising deficits and debt.

  • Report

    This document provides additional information on the economic forecast that CBO initially released on February 1, 2021.

  • Report

    If current laws governing taxes and spending generally remain unchanged, CBO projects, in 2021, the federal budget deficit will total $2.3 trillion, federal debt will reach 102 percent of GDP, and real GDP will grow by 3.7 percent.

  • Report

    CBO projects that the economic expansion that began in mid-2020 will continue. Real GDP is projected to return to its prepandemic level in mid-2021. The number of people employed is projected to return to its prepandemic level in 2024.

  • Report

    CBO presents its projections of what federal deficits, debt, spending, and revenues would be for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change.

  • Report

    By providing financial support to households, businesses, and state and local governments, federal laws enacted in response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic will offset part of the deterioration in economic conditions brought about by the pandemic.

  • Report

    CBO projects that from 2020 to 2030, annual real GDP will be 3.4 percent lower, on average, than it projected in January. The annual unemployment rate, which was projected to average 4.2 percent, is now projected to average 6.1 percent.

  • Interactive

    This workbook allows users to enter an alternative scenario for productivity growth, labor force growth, inflation, or interest rates and see estimates of revenues, several types of spending, and deficits under those scenarios.

  • Report

    In CBO’s projections of the outlook under current law, deficits remain large by historical standards, federal debt grows to 98 percent of GDP by 2030, and the economy expands at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent from 2021 to 2030.

  • Report

    CBO’s economic forecasts have been comparable in quality to those of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus. Large errors in CBO’s forecasts tend to reflect challenges faced by all forecasters.

  • Report

    How much do companies benefit from corporate inversions? In this report, CBO analyzes the reasons for and effects of inversions. CBO also projects how inversions and certain other strategies will affect future U.S. corporate tax revenues.