Economy

Primary tabs

CBO regularly assesses the state of the economy and prepares economic projections that underlie the agency’s projections for the federal budget and cost estimates for proposed legislation. CBO also produces studies on specific economic issues, such as trends in productivity and the condition of labor markets, and examines the economic impact of significant proposed changes in federal spending programs and the federal tax system.

QUICK LINKS

ECONOMIC DATA AND PROJECTIONS

BUDGET DATA AND PROJECTIONS

LONG-TERM BUDGET PROJECTIONS

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR CY 2015

(As of January 2015)

REAL GDP GROWTH (Q4/Q4)

2.9%

INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)

1.4%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q4)

5.5%

INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills)

0.2%
  • Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, March 2015
    Report March 3, 2015

    Under current law, as of March 16, the Treasury will be at the statutory borrowing limit and will need to use so-called extraordinary measures to continue raising cash. Those measures would probably be exhausted by October or November.

  • Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output in 2014
    Report February 20, 2015

    In calendar year 2014, ARRA—which was enacted in 2009—raised real GDP by between a small fraction of a percent and 0.2 percent and increased the number of full-time-equivalent jobs by between a slight amount and 0.2 million, CBO estimates.

  • The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025
    Report January 26, 2015

    Under current law, the deficit is projected to hold steady as a percentage of GDP through 2018, but rise thereafter, raising the already high federal debt. The rate of economic growth is projected to be solid in 2015 and the next few years.

  • The Economic Effects of the President’s 2015 Budget
    Report July 22, 2014

    The President’s policies would make U.S. output larger over the next decade than it would be under current law—mostly by changing immigration laws. Such economic effects would feed back into the budget in ways that would reduce deficits.

  • The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook
    Report July 15, 2014

    If current laws remained generally unchanged, federal debt held by the public would exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2039 and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.

  • The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market
    Report February 4, 2014

    Since the recession ended in June 2009, employment has risen sluggishly and the unemployment rate has fallen only partway back to its prerecession level. This CBO report discusses the reasons for the slow recovery of the labor market.

  • The Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act
    Report June 18, 2013

    S. 744 would boost economic output—CBO projects—by 3.3 percent in 2023 and by 5.4 percent in 2033. Employment, investment, and productivity would increase, but average wages would be less than under current law until 2025.

  • What Accounts for the Slow Growth of the Economy After the Recession?
    Report November 14, 2012

    During the three years following the recession in 2008 and 2009, the economy’s output grew at less than half the rate seen, on average, during other economic recoveries in the United States since the end of World War II.