Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook, typically produced in January each year and updated in August, includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law—known as baseline projections—over the next 10 years. CBO also updates its budget projections each spring in conjunction with its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals. By showing outcomes if current laws generally remained in place, the baseline projections provide the Congress with a benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed changes in spending and tax laws. CBO also analyzes the long-term budget outlook.

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BUDGET PROJECTIONS FOR FY 2022

(As of May 25, 2022 )

OUTLAYS	$5.9 Trillion
REVENUES	$4.8 Trillion
DEFICIT	$1.0 Trillion
DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (End of Fiscal Year)	$24.2 Trillion

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR CY 2022

(As of May 25, 2022 )

REAL GDP GROWTH (Q4/Q4)	3.1%
INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)	4.0%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q4)	3.7%
INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills, Q4)	1.4%

Blog Post
CBO to Release Updated Budget and Economic Projections on February 15
January 25, 2023
CBO will release "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033" and "Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, February 2023," at 2 p.m. EST on February 15.
Report
CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary Implications
November 30, 2022
CBO describes its current view of the economy over the next two years, compares that view with projections of other forecasters and with those that CBO made previously, and explains the implications for the federal budget.
Report
Automatic Stabilizers in the Federal Budget: 2022 to 2032
October 27, 2022
CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2022 to 2032 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1972.
Report
The 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook
July 27, 2022
The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook according to CBO's extended baseline projections, which show budget deficits and federal debt held by the public growing steadily in relation to gross domestic product over the next three decades.
Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032
May 25, 2022
In CBO’s projections, assuming that current laws generally remain unchanged, the federal deficit totals $1.0 trillion in fiscal year 2022 and averages $1.6 trillion per year from 2023 to 2032. Real GDP grows by 3.1 percent this year.