Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook, typically produced in January each year and updated in August, includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law—known as baseline projections—over the next 10 years. CBO also updates its budget projections each spring in conjunction with its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals. By showing outcomes if current laws generally remained in place, the baseline projections provide the Congress with a benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed changes in spending and tax laws. CBO also analyzes the long-term budget outlook.

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BUDGET PROJECTIONS FOR FY 2023

(As of )

OUTLAYS

$6.2 Trillion

REVENUES

$4.8 Trillion

DEFICIT

$1.4 Trillion

DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (End of Fiscal Year)

$25.7 Trillion

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR CY 2023

(As of )

REAL GDP GROWTH (Q4/Q4)

0.1%

INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)

3.3%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q4)

5.1%

INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills, Q4)

4.2%

  • Report
    The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033

    In CBO’s projections, the federal deficit totals $1.4 trillion in 2023 and averages $2.0 trillion per year from 2024 to 2033. Real GDP growth comes to a halt in 2023 and then rebounds, averaging 2.4 percent from 2024 to 2027.

  • Report
    CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary Implications

    CBO describes its current view of the economy over the next two years, compares that view with projections of other forecasters and with those that CBO made previously, and explains the implications for the federal budget.

  • Report
    Automatic Stabilizers in the Federal Budget: 2022 to 2032

    CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2022 to 2032 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1972.

  • Report
    The 2022 Long-Term Budget Outlook

    The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook according to CBO's extended baseline projections, which show budget deficits and federal debt held by the public growing steadily in relation to gross domestic product over the next three decades.

  • Report
    The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032

    In CBO’s projections, assuming that current laws generally remain unchanged, the federal deficit totals $1.0 trillion in fiscal year 2022 and averages $1.6 trillion per year from 2023 to 2032. Real GDP grows by 3.1 percent this year.