Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook, typically produced in January each year and updated in August, includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law—known as baseline projections—over the next 10 years. CBO also updates its budget projections each spring in conjunction with its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals. By showing outcomes if current laws generally remained in place, the baseline projections provide the Congress with a benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed changes in spending and tax laws. CBO also analyzes the long-term budget outlook.

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BUDGET PROJECTIONS FOR FY 2021

(As of )

OUTLAYS

$5.8 Trillion

REVENUES

$3.5 Trillion

DEFICIT

$2.3 Trillion

DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (End of Fiscal Year)

$22.5 Trillion

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR CY 2021

(As of )

REAL GDP GROWTH (Q4/Q4)

3.7%

INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)

1.7%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q4)

5.3%

INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills, Q4)

0.1%

  • Report
    The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031

    If current laws governing taxes and spending generally remain unchanged, CBO projects, in 2021, the federal budget deficit will total $2.3 trillion, federal debt will reach 102 percent of GDP, and real GDP will grow by 3.7 percent.

  • Report
    The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook

    CBO presents its projections of what federal deficits, debt, spending, and revenues would be for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change.

  • Report
    An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2020 to 2030

    CBO projects a federal budget deficit of $3.3 trillion in 2020, more than triple the shortfall recorded in 2019, mostly because of the economic disruption caused by the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and the enactment of legislation in response.

  • Growth of Real GDP and Real Potential GDP
    Report
    An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030

    CBO projects that from 2020 to 2030, annual real GDP will be 3.4 percent lower, on average, than it projected in January. The annual unemployment rate, which was projected to average 4.2 percent, is now projected to average 6.1 percent.

  • CBO Logo
    Blog Post
    Director’s Statement on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030

    This afternoon I briefed the press about the Congressional Budget Office’s new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030. It shows deficits that are slightly larger over the next 10 years and notably larger over the next 30 years than those that CBO previously projected.

  • Report
    The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030

    In CBO’s projections of the outlook under current law, deficits remain large by historical standards, federal debt grows to 98 percent of GDP by 2030, and the economy expands at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent from 2021 to 2030.

  • United States Capitol Building in Washington, DC
    Report
    Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Fiscal Policy

    In this report, CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under alternative assumptions about future fiscal policies and estimates the possible budgetary outcomes.

  • Report
    The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028

    In CBO’s projections, the economy grows relatively quickly this year and next and then more slowly in the following several years. The federal budget deficit rises substantially, boosting federal debt to nearly 100 percent of GDP by 2028.

  • Report
    An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2017 to 2027

    Under current law, deficits in CBO’s baseline projections continue to climb over the next decade, driving up federal debt. Economic growth remains modest, at about 2.0 percent through 2018 and then 1.9 percent later in the period.