Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook, typically produced in January each year and updated in August, includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law—known as baseline projections—over the next 10 years. CBO also updates its budget projections each spring in conjunction with its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals. By showing outcomes if current laws generally remained in place, the baseline projections provide the Congress with a benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed changes in spending and tax laws. CBO also analyzes the long-term budget outlook.

  • Report August 25, 2015

    CBO projects that if the debt limit is unchanged, the measures that the Treasury has been taking to avoid breaching that limit will be exhausted sometime between mid-November and early December, and the Treasury will then run out of cash.

  • Report August 25, 2015

    CBO expects that the deficit this year will be $426 billion––$60 billion less than projected in March. The economy is expected to expand modestly this year, at a solid pace in 2016 and 2017, and at a more moderate pace in subsequent years.  

  • Report June 16, 2015

    If current laws remained generally unchanged, federal debt held by the public would exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2040 and continue on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.

  • Report March 9, 2015

    Under current law, CBO estimates the deficit will total 2.7 percent of GDP in 2015, drop to roughly 2.4 percent for the following three years, and then begin to rise. By 2025, debt held by the public is projected to reach 77 percent of GDP.

  • Report January 26, 2015

    Under current law, the deficit is projected to hold steady as a percentage of GDP through 2018, but rise thereafter, raising the already high federal debt. The rate of economic growth is projected to be solid in 2015 and the next few years.

  • Graphic April 18, 2014

    This infographic is part of a set of four about the federal budget. See how much the government spent and took in during 2013 as well as other information about the budget, deficits, and debt.

  • Report December 20, 2013

    Federal debt is projected to rise significantly over the long term. What policy changes could reduce future deficits and thus lower the trajectory of federal debt? What criteria might be used to evaluate those policy changes?