As joint federal-state programs, Medicaid provides medical care for certain poor and low-income people, and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) provides coverage mostly for children in low-income families that do not qualify for Medicaid. Federal spending for Medicaid and CHIP was $265 billion and $9 billion, respectively, in 2013. By CBO’s projections, federal Medicaid spending will rise rapidly over the coming decade because of expanding eligibility under the Affordable Care Act (see CBO’s ongoing work on that legislation), the aging of the population, and rising costs per beneficiary. The agency’s work on Medicaid and CHIP includes projections of future federal spending for the programs, cost estimates of specific legislative proposals, and analyses with a broader perspective.
Medicaid and CHIP
Featured Work
Updated Estimates of the Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act, April 2014Apr 2014 - CBO and JCT have lowered their estimates of the net federal cost of the ACA’s insurance coverage provisions—to $1.4 trillion over the next decade, about $100 billion less than estimated in February.
Medicaid—April 2014 BaselineApr 2014
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024Feb 2014 - Under current law, deficits will drop through 2015 but rise thereafter, boosting the already high federal debt, CBO projects. Economic growth will be solid in the near term, but unemployment will not drop below 6.0 percent until 2017.
Health-Related Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2014 to 2023Dec 2013 - Most of the 16 options that CBO examined would either decrease federal spending on health programs or increase revenues (or equivalently, reduce tax expenditures) as a result of changes in tax provisions related to health care.
Long-Term Budget OutlookSep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
Dual-Eligible Beneficiaries of Medicare and Medicaid: Characteristics, Health Care Spending, and Evolving PoliciesJun 2013 - People eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid benefits—known as “dual-eligible beneficiaries”—are a varied group, but many have extensive health care needs and account for a disproportionate share of spending on Medicare and Medicaid.
Growth in Means-Tested Programs and Tax Credits for Low-Income HouseholdsFeb 2013 - During the past 40 years, federal spending for major means-tested programs and tax credits for low-income households more than tripled as a share of gross domestic product. In 2012, such spending totaled $588 billion.
Children's Health Insurance Program—April 2014 BaselineLatest Work
Coverage Effects of Limiting the Tax Exclusion for Employment-Based Health Insurance
PresentationJune 23, 2014Estimating the Budgetary Effects of the Affordable Care Act
Blog PostJune 17, 2014Presentation on the Distribution of Federal Spending and Taxes in 2006
PresentationMay 15, 2014Estimated Effects on Direct Spending and Revenues for Health Care Programs of Proposals in the President's 2015 Budget
Data or Technical InformationApril 17, 2014Updated Estimates of the Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act, April 2014
ReportApril 14, 2014Medicaid - Baseline Projections
Data or Technical InformationApril 14, 2014Children's Health Insurance Program - Baseline Projections
Data or Technical InformationApril 14, 2014S. 2110, SGR Repeal and Medicare Provider Payment Modernization Act of 2014
Cost EstimateMarch 19, 2014
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