Today CBO released four products that, in combination, explain how the agency uses its new health insurance simulation model, HISIM2, to generate estimates of health insurance coverage and premiums for people under age 65.
- ReportHow CBO and JCT Analyzed Coverage Effects of New Rules for Association Health Plans and Short-Term Plans
This report describes the methods used to assess how the new rules would affect the number of people who obtain health insurance and the costs of federal subsidies for that coverage. It also provides details about those projected effects.
If current laws remain generally unchanged, CBO projects, federal budget deficits and debt would increase over the next 30 years—reaching the highest level of debt relative to GDP in the nation’s history by far.
CBO and JCT project that the federal subsidies, taxes, and penalties associated with health insurance coverage for people under age 65 will result in a net subsidy from the federal government of $685 billion in 2018.
In addition to describing how CBO defines and estimates health insurance coverage for people under 65, the agency explains its sources of data, their limitations, and how it adjusts for such limitations when preparing its estimates.
- ReportCBO’s Record of Projecting Subsidies for Health Insurance Under the Affordable Care Act: 2014 to 2016
This report assesses the accuracy of projections that CBO and JCT made in 2010 and 2013 of federal spending for people made newly eligible for Medicaid by the ACA and of subsidies for health insurance purchased through the ACA marketplaces.
CBO and the JCT estimate that, by itself, repealing the mandate would reduce federal deficits by about $338 billion over the 2018–2027 period and increase the number of uninsured people by 4 million in 2019 and 13 million in 2027.
- Cost Estimate
CBO and the JCT estimate that enacting the legislation would reduce the deficit by $3.8 billion over the 2018–2027 period without substantially changing the number of people with health insurance coverage, on net.
- Cost Estimate
Over the 2017-2026 period, CBO and JCT estimate, the legislation would reduce the on-budget deficit by at least $133 billion and result in millions fewer people with comprehensive health insurance that covers high-cost medical events.
CBO and JCT project that the federal subsidies, taxes, and penalties associated with health insurance coverage for people under age 65 will result in a net subsidy from the federal government of $705 billion in 2017.
CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation estimated the effects on the federal budget, health insurance coverage, market stability, and premiums if payments for cost-sharing reductions would end after December 2017.
Medicaid spending under the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017 would be about 35 percent lower in 2036 compared with CBO’s extended baseline. Such spending under the bill would increase each year throughout the next two decades.
If current laws remained generally unchanged, the United States would face steadily increasing federal budget deficits and debt over the next 30 years—reaching the highest level of debt relative to GDP ever experienced in this country.
- ReportHow Repealing Portions of the Affordable Care Act Would Affect Health Insurance Coverage and Premiums
CBO reports on the estimated changes in health insurance coverage and premiums that would result from leaving the Affordable Care Act’s insurance market reforms in place while repealing the law’s mandate penalties and subsidies.
- Blog PostChallenges in Estimating the Number of People With Nongroup Health Insurance Coverage Under Proposals for Refundable Tax Credits
What are the challenges in estimating the number of people who would purchase health insurance in the nongroup (or individual) market under proposals to replace the current tax-based subsidies with refundable tax credits?
Premiums for private health insurance, which are high and rising, are affected by various federal subsidies and regulations. In 2016, the federal government will subsidize most premiums, at a cost of roughly $300 billion.
- Blog Post
CBO concludes that existing evidence does not indicate that certain policies to treat obesity would significantly reduce federal spending. Additional well-designed studies on the effects of such policies would be useful for CBO's analysis.
CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation estimate that, over the next decade, a repeal of the Affordable Care Act would probably increase budget deficits with or without considering the effects of macroeconomic feedback.
Why has Medicare's prescription drug program cost less than anticipated when the program was created? How has competition between plan sponsors affected spending? How do Medicare Part D drug prices compare to those in Medicaid?