If current laws remain generally unchanged, CBO projects, federal budget deficits and debt would increase over the next 30 years—reaching the highest level of debt relative to GDP in the nation’s history by far.
Private Health Insurance
CBO and the JCT estimate that, by itself, repealing the mandate would reduce federal deficits by about $338 billion over the 2018–2027 period and increase the number of uninsured people by 4 million in 2019 and 13 million in 2027.
CBO presents new estimates of the budgetary effects of options for a premium support system for Medicare and examines the reasons for the changes in the estimates, including changes in law that have affected the Medicare program.
- Cost Estimate
Over the 2017-2026 period, CBO and JCT estimate, the legislation would reduce the on-budget deficit by at least $133 billion and result in millions fewer people with comprehensive health insurance that covers high-cost medical events.
Premiums for private health insurance, which are high and rising, are affected by various federal subsidies and regulations. In 2016, the federal government will subsidize most premiums, at a cost of roughly $300 billion.
Under the ACA, most legal residents must get health insurance or pay a penalty. CBO and JCT estimate that 30 million will be uninsured in 2016, but most will be exempt from the penalty; 4 million will make payments totaling $4 billion.