As joint federal-state programs, Medicaid provides medical care for certain poor and low-income people, and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) provides coverage mostly for children in low-income families that do not qualify for Medicaid. Federal spending for Medicaid and CHIP was $251 billion and $9 billion, respectively, in 2012. On average during the year, Medicaid covered about 54 million people; and CHIP, an additional 5 million. By CBO’s projections, federal Medicaid spending will rise rapidly over the coming decade because of expanding eligibility under the Affordable Care Act (see CBO’s ongoing work on that legislation), the aging of the population, and rising costs per beneficiary. The agency’s work on Medicaid and CHIP includes projections of future federal spending for the programs, cost estimates of specific legislative proposals, and analyses with a broader perspective.
Medicaid and CHIP
featured work
Long-Term Budget OutlookSep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
Dual-Eligible Beneficiaries of Medicare and Medicaid: Characteristics, Health Care Spending, and Evolving PoliciesJun 2013 - People eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid benefits—known as “dual-eligible beneficiaries”—are a varied group, but many have extensive health care needs and account for a disproportionate share of spending on Medicare and Medicaid.
Federal Grants to State and Local GovernmentsMar 2013 - In 2011, the federal government provided $607 billion in grants to state and local governments, accounting for 17 percent of federal outlays and a quarter of spending by states and localities. Nearly half of that amount was for Medicaid.
Medicaid—May 2013 BaselineMay 2013
Growth in Means-Tested Programs and Tax Credits for Low-Income HouseholdsFeb 2013 - During the past 40 years, federal spending for major means-tested programs and tax credits for low-income households more than tripled as a share of gross domestic product. In 2012, such spending totaled $588 billion.
Letter to the Honorable John Boehner providing an estimate for H.R. 6079, the Repeal of Obamacare ActJul 2012 - CBO and the JCT have estimated the direct spending and revenue effects of H.R. 6079, as passed by the House of Representatives on July 11, 2012.
CBO’s Estimate of the Net Budgetary Impact of the Affordable Care Act’s Health Insurance Coverage Provisions Has Not Changed Much Over TimeMay 2013 - This blog post describes in more detail CBO’s revised expectations about sources of people’s insurance coverage and the net budgetary impact of those revisions, as reflected in CBO’s May 2013 baseline projections.
The Long-Term Budgetary Impact of Paths for Federal Revenues and Spending Specified by Chairman RyanMar 2012 - The calculations presented here represent CBO's assessment of how the specified paths would alter the trajectories of federal debt, revenues, spending, and economic output relative to the trajectories under two scenarios that CBO has analyzed previously.
latest work
Comments About CBO’s Projections for Federal Health Care Spending
blog postMarch 10, 2014Updated Estimates of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act
blog postMarch 4, 2014Presentation on Federal Health Care Spending at Williams College
blog postFebruary 28, 2014Federal Health Care Spending: Why Is It Growing? What Could Be Done About It?
presentationFebruary 27, 2014Testimony on the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024
reportFebruary 11, 2014Testimony on the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024
reportFebruary 5, 2014Designing Policy Interventions to Address Obesity: Research and Analytic Challenges
presentationFebruary 4, 2014CBO’s Analysis of Health Care Policy
presentationJanuary 29, 2014
Use this menu to filter CBO's publications by topic. From January 2011 forward, all the agency's products are categorized by topic. Cost estimates released prior to the 112th Congress are not categorized by topic.