Explaining Analytical Methods

In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 350 million people in 2025 to 372 million in 2055, and the average age rises. Beginning in 2033, annual deaths exceed annual births, and net immigration accounts for the growth.

An increase in immigration over the 2021–2026 period boosts federal revenues as well as mandatory spending and interest on the debt in CBO’s baseline projections, lowering deficits, on net, by $0.9 trillion over the 2024–2034 period.

In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054. Net immigration increasingly drives population growth, accounting for all population growth beginning in 2040.

In 2018, 46 million people living in the United States—or 14 percent of the population—had been born in other countries. CBO examines the employment and earnings of men and women by their legal immigration status, level of education, and birthplace.