Explaining Analytical Methods
- Report
The Demographic Outlook: 2026 to 2056
In CBO's projections, the U.S. population grows from 349 million people in 2026 to 364 million in 2056, and the average age rises. Starting in 2030, annual deaths exceed annual births, and net immigration accounts for all population growth.
- Report
An Update to the Demographic Outlook, 2025 to 2055
CBO projects that the U.S. population will increase from 350 million people in 2025 to 367 million people in 2055. It will be smaller and grow more slowly over the next 30 years, on average, than the agency previously projected it would.
- Report
Effects of the Surge in Immigration on State and Local Budgets in 2023
CBO estimates how the surge in immigration that began in 2021 affected state and local budgets in 2023. State and local tax revenues grew, but the costs of providing services grew more.
- Report
The Demographic Outlook: 2025 to 2055
In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 350 million people in 2025 to 372 million in 2055, and the average age rises. Beginning in 2033, annual deaths exceed annual births, and net immigration accounts for the growth.
- Report
Effects of the Immigration Surge on the Federal Budget and the Economy
An increase in immigration over the 2021–2026 period boosts federal revenues as well as mandatory spending and interest on the debt in CBO’s baseline projections, lowering deficits, on net, by $0.9 trillion over the 2024–2034 period.
- Report
The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054
In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054. Net immigration increasingly drives population growth, accounting for all population growth beginning in 2040.
- Working Paper
Estimating the Legal Status of Foreign-Born People: Working Paper 2021-02
This paper explains CBO’s methods for estimating the number of residents without legal status and imputing legal status by using individual-level data from federal surveys.
- Report
The Employment of Foreign-Born People
In 2018, 46 million people living in the United States—or 14 percent of the population—had been born in other countries. CBO examines the employment and earnings of men and women by their legal immigration status, level of education, and birthplace.