In this report, CBO analyzes its baseline projections of deficits and debt held by the public that were made each spring beginning in 1984. Each of those projections spanned the fiscal year already under way and five or 10 subsequent years.

The analysis shows that, on average, CBO has slightly overestimated deficits for the budget year (which typically begins about six months after a spring baseline is released) and slightly underestimated deficits for the sixth year. CBO has likewise overestimated debt held by the public at the end of the budget year and underestimated it at the end of the sixth year, on average.

Read the report