According to CBO’s current assessment, economic growth will probably be slower in 2023 than the agency projected in May 2022, reflecting recent developments (including higher interest rates), and faster in 2024, as the economy recovers. Rates of unemployment, inflation, and interest will probably be higher over the next two years than CBO projected in May 2022. Slower economic growth and higher rates of unemployment, inflation, and interest increase federal deficits and debt.

CBO will publish its budget and economic projections early next year in the agency’s annual Budget and Economic Outlook. As part of the process of preparing that report, CBO is in the midst of revising its economic forecast. The agency is providing information in this report now in response to interest expressed by Members of Congress.