Updated Estimates of the Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act, April 2014

CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation have lowered their estimates of the net federal cost of the ACA’s insurance coverage provisions.

As reflected in CBO’s April 2014 baseline, the agencies now project a cost of $36 billion for 2014, $5 billion less than the projection made in February; and close to $1.4 trillion for the 2015–2024 period, about $100 billion less than the February projection.

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Updated Budget Projections: 2014 to 2024

Under current law, the deficit will decrease to $492 billion in 2014, CBO projects, as revenues continue rebounding from their low in the recession.

But beginning in 2016, deficits will rise again—largely because of an aging population, rising health care costs, an expansion of federal subsidies for health insurance, and growing interest payments. By 2024, debt will reach 78 percent of GDP, twice the average of the past four decades.

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A Review of CBO’s Activities in 2013 Under the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act

CBO analyzes proposed legislation and enacted laws to identify federal mandates, which are requirements imposed on state, local, and tribal governments or on entities in the private sector.

Relatively few pieces of legislation that CBO reviewed in 2013 contained mandates: Of the 437 bills analyzed, 39 contained intergovernmental mandates and 53 contained private-sector mandates. Of the 72 public laws enacted in 2013, 3 contain intergovernmental mandates and 8 contain private-sector mandates.

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Revisions to CBO’s Projection of Potential Output Since 2007

CBO’s projection of the nation’s potential output—that is, the maximum sustainable amount of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product that the economy can produce—is lower now than it was several years ago. For example, the agency’s projection for 2017 is about 7 percent lower than its projection in January 2007. This report explains the reasons for that change.

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The Effects of a Minimum-Wage Increase on Employment and Family Income

Increasing the minimum wage would have two principal effects on low-wage workers. Most of them would receive higher pay that would increase their family’s income, and some of those families would see their income rise above the poverty threshold. But some jobs for low-wage workers would probably be eliminated, the income of most workers who became jobless would fall substantially, and the share of low-wage workers who were employed would probably fall slightly.

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