Taxes

Federal revenues come largely from individual income taxes and payroll taxes, with corporate income taxes and other taxes playing smaller roles. CBO projects future federal revenues under current law, estimates the distribution of income and federal taxes, and analyzes the effects of various features of the federal tax system and potential changes to that system. (A separate page on the Budget provides information about a broader set of CBO's work in that area.)

REVENUE PROJECTIONS FOR FY 2021

(As of )

INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAXES

$2.0 Trillion

PAYROLL TAXES

$1.3 Trillion

CORPORATE INCOME TAXES

$238 Billion

OTHER

$306 Billion

  • Report

    CBO provides additional detail about its latest baseline projections, which were published on July 1, 2021. The projected deficit for 2021 is $3.0 trillion, $126 billion less than the deficit recorded last year.

  • Report

    If current laws generally remain unchanged, the federal budget deficit will total $3.0 trillion and federal debt will reach 103 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2021, CBO estimates, and real GDP will grow by 7.4 percent in calendar year 2021.

  • Report

    CBO describes estate and gift taxes, the people who pay them, the types of assets that make up taxable estates, and the model the agency uses to project estate and gift tax revenues in its baseline.

  • Blog Post

    View CBO’s budget infographics to see how much the federal government spent and took in during fiscal year 2020, as well as broader trends in the budget over the past few decades.

  • Report

    This document provides additional information about the baseline budget projections that CBO released on February 11, 2021.

  • Report

    CBO presents its projections of the federal budget for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change. Growth in revenues would be outpaced by growth in spending, leading to rising deficits and debt.

  • Report

    If current laws governing taxes and spending generally remain unchanged, CBO projects, in 2021, the federal budget deficit will total $2.3 trillion, federal debt will reach 102 percent of GDP, and real GDP will grow by 3.7 percent.

  • Report

    CBO periodically issues a compendium of policy options and their effects on the federal budget. This document provides estimates of the budgetary savings from 83 options that would decrease federal spending or increase federal revenues.

  • Report

    In 2017, average household income before accounting for means-tested transfers and federal taxes was $21,300 for the lowest quintile and $309,400 for the highest quintile. After transfers and taxes, those averages were $35,900 and $229,700.

  • Report

    By providing financial support to households, businesses, and state and local governments, federal laws enacted in response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic will offset part of the deterioration in economic conditions brought about by the pandemic.

  • Report

    The average error for CBO’s budget-year revenue projections is 1.2 percent, indicating the agency has tended to slightly overestimate revenues. For the agency’s sixth-year revenue projections, the average error is greater—5.6 percent.

  • Report

    CBO examines the IRS’s enforcement activities between 2010 and 2018 and analyzes how the decline in those activities reflects the decline in its funding and staff over that period. CBO also estimates how changes to the IRS’s budget could affect federal revenues.

  • Blog Post

    CBO has reduced its projections of corporate income tax receipts for the 2020–2029 period by $127 billion (or about 4 percent). That change from the agency’s August 2019 projections arose from several sources.

  • Report

    CBO examines the tax benefit of having dependents under current law in 2019 and 2026 and analyzes how three policy options that would simplify dependent-related tax provisions would affect that benefit.

  • Report

    This report projects the distributions of household income, means-tested transfers, and federal taxes under current law in 2021 and compares them with the actual distributions in 2016.

  • Report

    CBO examines choices lawmakers would face in establishing a federal tax on the miles traveled by commercial trucks—including choices about the tax base, rate structure, and implementation methods—and illustrates how such a tax might affect the federal budget.

  • Report

    In this report, CBO projects, on the basis of current law, marginal federal tax rates on labor income from 2018 through 2028. So that current trends can be understood in a historical context, the projections are accompanied by rates from 1962.