Explaining Analytical Methods

Since 2003, CBO has projected the Department of Defense’s costs for the 10 to 15 years beyond those covered in the Future Years Defense Program’s five-year plan. This report describes some of the methods CBO uses to make those projections.

CBO estimates that a three-ship Polar Security Cutter program would cost $5.1 billion in 2024 dollars—about 60 percent more than the Coast Guard’s current estimate. Operating those three ships would cost $12.4 billion through 2063.

CBO estimates that construction of 18 medium landing ships would cost between $6.2 billion and $7.8 billion in 2024 dollars. CBO’s estimates range from two to roughly three times the Navy’s current estimates.

Between 1980 and 2022, the shipbuilding composite index grew an average of 1.2 percentage points faster per year than the GDP deflator did. Looking ahead, a gap of roughly 1 percentage point would be consistent with historical experience.

CBO compares the housing standards used to determine the military’s basic allowance for housing (BAH) with the housing rented by comparable civilians. CBO also compares BAH rates with the rental costs paid by those civilians.

CBO compared the earnings, personal income, and household income of working-age male veterans who received disability payments from the Department of Veterans Affairs with those of veterans who did not receive such payments.

CBO estimates that eliminating the maintenance backlogs of roughly 20,000 buildings that the Navy uses and maintains in the United States would cost $17 billion. Renovating and modernizing the buildings would cost an additional $32 billion.

CBO reexamines the availability and use of the Department of Defense’s F-35 fighter aircraft and presents new findings on availability rates, flying hours, and effects of aging.

CBO analyzes the hypersonic missiles being developed by the U.S. military and compares them with less expensive existing or potential weapons that might fill similar roles, such as cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.

CBO analyzes patterns in the availability and use of the Air Force’s and Department of the Navy’s aircraft since 2001. CBO also analyzes how the military aircraft have performed since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

The military services use unmanned aerial systems (UASs) differently than manned aircraft. UASs generally have lower recurring costs per flying hour, but their cost advantage may be smaller when the cost of acquiring the aircraft is considered.

This update of CBO’s 2016 primer on the structure of the U.S. military describes the size, functions, and operation and support costs of every major element of the armed forces.

CBO examined the threat that adversaries equipped with land-attack cruise missiles might pose to the U.S. homeland and estimated the costs of several defensive systems that could be fielded to protect the United States from such attacks.