Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook, typically produced in January each year and updated in August, includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law—known as baseline projections—over the next 10 years. CBO also updates its budget projections each spring in conjunction with its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals. By showing outcomes if current laws generally remained in place, the baseline projections provide the Congress with a benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed changes in spending and tax laws. CBO also analyzes the long-term budget outlook.

BUDGET PROJECTIONS FOR FY 2024

(As of )

OUTLAYS

$6.8 Trillion

REVENUES

$4.9 Trillion

DEFICIT

$1.9 Trillion

DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (End of Fiscal Year)

$28.2 Trillion

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR CY 2024

(As of )

REAL GDP GROWTH (Q4/Q4)

2.0%

INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)

2.7%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q4)

3.9%

INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills, Q4)

5.1%

  • Report

    In CBO’s projections, the deficit totals nearly $2 trillion this year. Large deficits push federal debt held by the public to 122 percent of GDP in 2034. Economic growth slows to 2.0 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2026 and later years.

  • Blog Post

    CBO will publish "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034" on June 18 at 2 p.m. EDT. On June 27 at 2 p.m., CBO will publish "An Analysis of the Discretionary Spending Proposals in the President’s 2025 Budget."

  • Report

    CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under different assumptions about future legislated policies.

  • Report

    The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.

  • Report

    In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.

  • Blog Post

    CBO will release "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034" at 2 p.m. EST on February 7.

  • Report

    The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.

  • Report

    CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under different assumptions about future legislated policies.

  • Report

    CBO’s updated projections show a federal budget deficit of $1.5 trillion for 2023. That estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty, though, in part because of a recent shortfall in tax revenues.

  • Report

    In this report, CBO uses various measures to assess the quality of its past projections of federal outlays. The analysis focuses on three fiscal years within each projection period: the budget year, the 6th year, and the 11th year.

  • Report

    In CBO’s projections, the federal deficit totals $1.4 trillion in 2023 and averages $2.0 trillion per year from 2024 to 2033. Real GDP growth comes to a halt in 2023 and then rebounds, averaging 2.4 percent from 2024 to 2027.

  • Report

    CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2022 to 2032 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1972.

  • Report

    In CBO’s projections, assuming that current laws generally remain unchanged, the federal deficit totals $1.0 trillion in fiscal year 2022 and averages $1.6 trillion per year from 2023 to 2032. Real GDP grows by 3.1 percent this year.