Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook, typically produced in January each year and updated in August, includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law—known as baseline projections—over the next 10 years. CBO also updates its budget projections each spring in conjunction with its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals. By showing outcomes if current laws generally remained in place, the baseline projections provide the Congress with a benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed changes in spending and tax laws. CBO also analyzes the long-term budget outlook.

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BUDGET PROJECTIONS FOR FY 2023

(As of )

OUTLAYS

$6.4 Trillion

REVENUES

$4.8 Trillion

DEFICIT

$1.5 Trillion

DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (End of Fiscal Year)

$25.8 Trillion

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR CY 2023

(As of )

REAL GDP GROWTH (Q4/Q4)

0.1%

INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)

3.3%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q4)

5.1%

INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills, Q4)

4.2%

  • Report
    The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook

    The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.

  • United States Capitol Building in Washington, DC
    Report
    Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Spending and Revenues

    CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under different assumptions about future legislated policies.

  • Report
    An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033

    CBO’s updated projections show a federal budget deficit of $1.5 trillion for 2023. That estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty, though, in part because of a recent shortfall in tax revenues.

  • Report
    An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Outlays From 1984 to 2021

    In this report, CBO uses various measures to assess the quality of its past projections of federal outlays. The analysis focuses on three fiscal years within each projection period: the budget year, the 6th year, and the 11th year.

  • Report
    The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033

    In CBO’s projections, the federal deficit totals $1.4 trillion in 2023 and averages $2.0 trillion per year from 2024 to 2033. Real GDP growth comes to a halt in 2023 and then rebounds, averaging 2.4 percent from 2024 to 2027.

  • Report
    Automatic Stabilizers in the Federal Budget: 2022 to 2032

    CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2022 to 2032 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1972.

  • Report
    The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032

    In CBO’s projections, assuming that current laws generally remain unchanged, the federal deficit totals $1.0 trillion in fiscal year 2022 and averages $1.6 trillion per year from 2023 to 2032. Real GDP grows by 3.1 percent this year.