Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Report
Effects of Automatic Stabilizers on the Federal Budget: 2026 to 2036
CBO provides estimates of the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of federal budget deficits without them—over the past 50 years and in CBO's current economic forecast from 2026 to 2036.
- Report
An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Revenues From 1982 to 2025
CBO compares the baseline projections of federal revenues it has made since 1982 with actual revenues.
- Blog Post
CBO’s Updated Budgetary Projections of Tariffs as of July 31, 2026
Changes in trade policy through July 31, 2026, result in projected total deficits that are $0.9 trillion larger over the 2027–2036 period than they were in CBO’s February 2026 baseline projections.
- Report
Federal Excise Tax Revenues
CBO describes excise taxes, examines trends in excise tax revenues, and provides information about the models it uses for its baseline projections of excise tax revenues.
- Blog Post
Revenue Collections Through the Individual Income Tax Filing Season
Collections of federal revenues from October 2025 to mid-May 2026 totaled $3.5 trillion, about $50 billion (or 1 percent) less than would be expected on the basis of CBO's February 2026 baseline projections.
- Interactive
How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget, 2026 to 2036: An Interactive Tool
This tool allows users to define and analyze alternative economic scenarios and see how federal revenues, outlays, and deficits and debt under those scenarios might differ from outcomes in CBO's 10-year budget projections.
- Report
How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2026 to 2036
To show how economic conditions affect its budget projections, CBO analyzed how revenues, outlays, and deficits might change if the values of key economic variables differed from those in the agency's forecast.
- Report
Testimony on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies about the agency's most recent analysis of the outlook for the budget and the economy before the Senate Finance Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth.
- Blog Post
An Update About CBO's Projections of the Budgetary Effects of Tariffs
CBO provides information about how the recent Supreme Court ruling on tariffs affects the agency's budget projections.
- Blog Post
How Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Might Differ From CBO's February 2026 Projections
Members of Congress have asked what might cause deficits and debt over the next 10 years to be lower than CBO has projected. CBO's Director recaps his answers to their questions about economic growth, revenues, and spending.