Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Report
Testimony on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies about the agency's most recent analysis of the outlook for the budget and the economy before the Senate Finance Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth.
- Blog Post
An Update About CBO's Projections of the Budgetary Effects of Tariffs
CBO provides information about how the recent Supreme Court ruling on tariffs affects the agency's budget projections.
- Blog Post
How Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Might Differ From CBO's February 2026 Projections
Members of Congress have asked what might cause deficits and debt over the next 10 years to be lower than CBO has projected. CBO's Director recaps his answers to their questions about economic growth, revenues, and spending.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Data: 2026 to 2056
In lieu of publishing a report providing CBO's latest long-term budget outlook, the agency is publishing the data that it would have presented in that report.
- Blog Post
CBO's Updated Projections of the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund's Finances
CBO estimates that the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund's balance is exhausted in 2040. The balance generally increases through 2031, but spending begins to outstrip income in the following year.
- Working Paper
Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Macroeconomic Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act: Working Paper 2026-01
The 2025 reconciliation act included a wide range of provisions that affect policies governing federal revenues and spending. This working paper describes the key methods that CBO used to estimate the law's macroeconomic effects.
- Blog Post
Director's Statement on the Budget and Economic Outlook for 2026 to 2036
CBO's Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses the current budget and economic outlook and highlights the effects of the 2025 reconciliation act, higher tariffs, and lower immigration on CBO's baseline budget and economic projections.
- Presentation
The Budget and Economic Outlook for 2026 to 2036: Press Briefing Slides
CBO's Director, Phillip Swagel, briefs members of the press on the current budget and economic outlook.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
In CBO's projections, the federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2026 is $1.9 trillion, and federal debt rises to 120 percent of GDP in 2036. Economic growth strengthens in 2026 and moderates in later years.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO's Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2025
In its June 2024 projections for fiscal year 2025, CBO underestimated revenues by 6 percent and outlays by 2 percent. The agency overestimated the federal budget deficit by 0.7 percent of GDP.