Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Blog Post
Director’s Statement on the Budget and Economic Outlook for 2025 to 2035
CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses the current budget and economic outlook.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is $1.9 trillion this year, and federal debt rises to 118 percent of GDP in 2035. Economic growth slows and inflation declines over the next two years; both remain moderate after 2026.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2024
In its May 2023 budget projections for fiscal year 2024, CBO underestimated revenues by 1 percent and outlays by 6 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit for 2024 was less than the actual amount by 1.1 percent of GDP.
- Report
Effects of Illustrative Policies That Would Increase Tariffs
CBO provides a preliminary assessment of the budgetary, economic, and distributional effects of three policies that would raise tariff rates on goods imported into the United States.
- Report
CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts: 2025 to 2034
This report presents CBO’s projections of revenues and outlays for the 2025–2034 period translated into the framework of the national income and product accounts and their categories of current receipts and expenditures.
- Blog Post
Additional Information About the Effects of Expiring Provisions of the 2017 Tax Act in CBO’s Baseline Projections
CBO’s Director describes how expiring provisions of the 2017 tax act affect the agency’s baseline projections and reviews some information that has become available since CBO first estimated the effects of the tax act in April 2018.
- Presentation
How the Expiring Individual Income Tax Provisions in the 2017 Tax Act Affect CBO’s Economic Forecast
CBO’s economic forecast reflects current law, including the expiration, at the end of 2025, of some provisions of the 2017 tax act. CBO analyzed how the expiration of those provisions affected projections that it published in February 2024.
- Blog Post
Release Schedule for Key CBO Reports
CBO announces the release schedule for several upcoming publications that will provide insights on the federal budget and the economy.
- Report
Effects of Automatic Stabilizers on the Federal Budget: 2024 to 2034
CBO provides estimates of the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of federal budget deficits without them—back to 1974 and forward to 2034.
- Presentation
How CBO Projects Tariff Revenues
CBO describes how it projects tariff revenues and explains how, and when, it produces estimates of the effects of changes in tariff rates.