Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Blog Post
CBO's Updated Projections of the Budgetary Effects of Tariffs as of November 15, 2025
Tariffs have changed frequently throughout 2025. CBO has regularly updated Congress about how those changes affect projected tariff revenues. This blog post is the latest in that series.
- Presentation
CBO's Estimates of the 2017 Tax Act: Growth and Revenues
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO's Director, at the 40th Annual National Bureau of Economic Research Tax Policy and the Economy Conference.
- Blog Post
An Update About CBO's Projections of the Budgetary Effects of Tariffs
As tariffs changed frequently throughout 2025, CBO has regularly updated the Congress about projected tariff revenues; this blog post is the latest in that series.
- Blog Post
Coming Soon From CBO: Selected Reports and Analyses
CBO announces the release schedule for several publications next month that provide updated information on the federal budget, demographic trends, and the short-term economic outlook.
- Report
Effects on Deficits and the Debt of Public Law 119-21 and of Making Certain Tax Policies in the Act Permanent
CBO estimates that Public Law 119-21 will raise debt-service costs by $718 billion over the 2025–2034 period and increase the cumulative effect on the deficit to $4.1 trillion.
- Report
Effects on Deficits and the Debt of Enacting H.R. 1 and of Making Certain Tax Policies in H.R. 1 Permanent
CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 1 and making 16 tax provisions within H.R. 1 permanent would raise debt-service costs by $687 billion over the 2025–2034 period and increase the bill's cumulative deficit effect to $4.5 trillion.
- Report
Budgetary and Economic Effects of Increases in Tariffs Implemented Between January 6 and May 13, 2025
CBO estimates the budgetary and economic effects of increases in tariffs that were implemented through executive action between January 6 and May 13, 2025.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed the effects on the budget and the economy of eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s extended baseline—six that vary economic conditions and two that vary budgetary conditions.
- Report
Projections of Deficits and Debt Under an Alternative Scenario for the Budget
CBO analyzed the effects of an alternative budget scenario in which certain provisions of the 2017 tax act were extended permanently and revenues were reduced by additional amounts.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055
Extending the 10-year budget projections it published on January 17, 2025, CBO projects that federal debt held by the public, boosted by sustained deficits, will grow far beyond any previously recorded level over the next 30 years.