Defense and National Security

To help assess budgetary risks, CBO has projected spending by the Department of Veterans Affairs through 2028 under three scenarios, a modified version of CBO’s baseline and two other scenarios involving more rapid spending growth.

CBO projects that the annual cost (in 2018 dollars) of replacing the aircraft in the current fleet, essentially one-for-one, would average $15 billion in the 2020s, $23 billion in the 2030s, and $15 billion in the 2040s.

The share of international affairs funding that was provided outside of agencies’ base budget for ongoing activities—that is, “nonbase” funding—increased markedly from 2014 to 2017, mostly for overseas contingency operations.

CBO analyzes how the Defense Department’s (DoD’s) funding for military conflicts has changed over time and how the separate budgetary treatment of that funding affects perceptions of DoD’s spending and the anticipated costs of DoD’s plans.

The Navy’s 2019 shipbuilding plan calls for expanding the fleet to 355 battle force ships. On average, implementing the plan would cost 80 percent more per year than the funding for shipbuilding that the Navy has received in recent decades.

As aircraft age, they generally become more expensive to operate. The rate of cost growth for the Air Force’s aging aircraft has increased in recent years to a considerable degree because of growth in the total Air Force budget.

This tool allows the user to see the effects on the Department of Defense’s total operation and support costs and on the size of the military of adding or subtracting tanks, ships, aircraft, and other units.

The Navy could use several approaches to increase the size of its fleet. This report focuses on reactivating decommissioned ships, drawing insights from past experiences that might inform lawmakers’ decisions about reactivating ships.

CBO regularly analyzes the Navy’s shipbuilding programs and produces its own estimates of the costs of new ships. CBO’s method relies on historical experience, with adjustments for rate, learning, acquisition strategy, and economic factors.

CBO estimates that the costs of achieving a 355-ship Navy under two different approaches would average over $100 billion annually through 2047. Those scenarios are compared with two others that would cost less and involve a smaller fleet.

This report examines the depot-level maintenance experiences of aging combat aircraft currently in use by DoD and provides insights for the Congress and DoD to consider as the F-35 fleet enters service.

CBO estimates that inflation-adjusted costs for the Department of Defense would climb from the $575 billion requested in 2018 to $688 billion in 2027 if DoD pursued goals that Administration officials have articulated for the military.

CBO estimates that the Obama Administration’s 2017 plans for nuclear forces would cost $1.2 trillion (in 2017 dollars) over the 2017–2046 period. CBO analyzed nine options that would reduce those costs or delay some of them.

CBO examined possible changes to the Department of Defense’s Military Health System, analyzing the effects of those changes on the federal budget, the quality of military health care, and preparedness for wartime missions.

Funding for support functions consumes more of the defense budget today than it did in the 1980s, CBO finds. The largest increases were in health care, DoD management, communications infrastructure, and the science and technology program.

From 2008 to 2015, male veterans ages 22 to 44 who left active-duty service after September 2001 had experiences in the labor market similar to those of civilian men, although the youngest veterans had somewhat higher unemployment rates.

CBO estimates that construction costs to build a fleet of 355 ships would average $26.6 billion (in 2017 dollars) per year over the next 30 years, which is 60 percent more than what the Navy has spent on average over the past 30 years.

The Obama Administration’s final defense plan called for base-budget funding averaging $540 billion (in 2017 dollars) from 2017 through 2021, but it would have reached almost $600 billion per year by 2032 under DoD’s cost assumptions. 

CBO estimates that existing plans for U.S. nuclear forces would cost $400 billion over the 2017–2026 period—$52 billion more than CBO’s 2015 estimate for the 2015–2024 period, largely because modernization programs will be ramping up.

The U.S. military’s capabilities and budget are determined primarily by its forces. This report describes each type of major combat unit’s structure, function, strengths and limitations, past usage, size, and cost.

The Department of Defense’s five-year plan calls for budgets averaging $534 billion (in 2016 dollars) from 2016 through 2020, but they would average $565 billion per year from 2021 through 2030 under the department’s cost assumptions.

The Defense Department could cut federal costs by replacing some military personnel in support positions with civilian employees. If DoD replaced 80,000 military personnel, it could eventually save $3.1 billion to $5.7 billion annually.

The Navy can sustain its forward presence under smaller shipbuilding budgets by using longer deployments, more overseas basing, and more rotating crews. But those methods would offset some of the savings and have other disadvantages.

The Department of Defense's base budget increased by 31 percent (adjusted for inflation) between 2000 and 2014, mainly because of higher costs for military personnel and operation and maintenance.

From 2000 to 2013, the number of veterans receiving VA disability payments rose by nearly 55 percent, and spending for those benefits almost tripled. How might changes in VA's disability compensation program affect the federal budget?

Between 2000 and 2012, the cost of providing health care to service members, retirees, and their families increased by 130 percent (after adjusting for inflation). What approaches might curtail the growth in those costs?

The costs of the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) budget plans through 2021 would be much higher than the funding permitted under the Budget Control Act’s statutory caps. CBO examined four options to cut back on DoD’s forces and activities.