Social Security

In CBO’s projections, spending for Social Security increases relative to GDP over the next 75 years, and the gap between outlays and revenues widens. If combined, the program’s trust funds would be exhausted in fiscal year 2033.

In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 336 million people in 2023 to 373 million people in 2053. Population growth is increasingly driven by net immigration, which accounts for all population growth beginning in 2042.

In CBO’s projections, spending on Social Security exceeds revenues to the program in 2022 and increases relative to GDP over the next 75 years, while revenues remain stable. If combined, the program’s trust funds would be exhausted in 2033.

CBO issues a volume describing 17 policy options that would each reduce the federal budget deficit by more than $300 billion over the next 10 years or, in the case of Social Security options, have a comparably large effect in later decades.

CBO issues a volume that contains short descriptions of 59 policy options that would each reduce the federal budget deficit by less than $300 billion over the next 10 years.

CBO presents its projections of what federal deficits, debt, spending, and revenues would be for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change.

In June 2019, CBO updated its long-term budget projections, including projections of the Social Security system’s finances. CBO compares those projections with its 2018 projections and with the Social Security trustees’ latest projections.

This interactive tool lets the user explore seven policy options that could be used to improve the finances of the Social Security program and delay the exhaustion of its trust funds.

This report and the accompanying interactive tool present CBO’s analysis of whether Social Security benefits enable retired workers to meet their basic needs and the extent to which benefits replace preretirement earnings.