Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook, typically produced in January each year and updated in August, includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law—known as baseline projections—over the next 10 years. CBO also updates its budget projections each spring in conjunction with its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals. By showing outcomes if current laws generally remained in place, the baseline projections provide the Congress with a benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed changes in spending and tax laws. CBO also analyzes the long-term budget outlook.

BUDGET PROJECTIONS FOR FY 2022

(As of )

OUTLAYS

$5.9 Trillion

REVENUES

$4.8 Trillion

DEFICIT

$1.0 Trillion

DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (End of Fiscal Year)

$24.2 Trillion

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR CY 2022

(As of )

REAL GDP GROWTH (Q4/Q4)

3.1%

INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)

4.0%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q4)

3.7%

INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills, Q4)

1.4%

  • Blog Post

    CBO will release "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033" and "Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, February 2023," at 2 p.m. EST on February 15.

  • Report

    CBO describes its current view of the economy over the next two years, compares that view with projections of other forecasters and with those that CBO made previously, and explains the implications for the federal budget.

  • Report

    CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2022 to 2032 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1972.

  • Report

    The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook according to CBO's extended baseline projections, which show budget deficits and federal debt held by the public growing steadily in relation to gross domestic product over the next three decades.

  • Report

    In CBO’s projections, assuming that current laws generally remain unchanged, the federal deficit totals $1.0 trillion in fiscal year 2022 and averages $1.6 trillion per year from 2023 to 2032. Real GDP grows by 3.1 percent this year.

  • Report

    CBO projects that the economic expansion that began in mid-2020 will continue. Real GDP is projected to return to its prepandemic level in mid-2021. The number of people employed is projected to return to its prepandemic level in 2024.

  • Report

    By providing financial support to households, businesses, and state and local governments, federal laws enacted in response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic will offset part of the deterioration in economic conditions brought about by the pandemic.