Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

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CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook, typically produced in January each year and updated in August, includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law—known as baseline projections—over the next 10 years. CBO also updates its budget projections each spring in conjunction with its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals. By showing outcomes if current laws generally remained in place, the baseline projections provide the Congress with a benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed changes in spending and tax laws. CBO also analyzes the long-term budget outlook.

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BUDGET DATA AND PROJECTIONS

ECONOMIC DATA AND PROJECTIONS

LONG-TERM BUDGET PROJECTIONS

HISTORICAL BUDGET DATA

BUDGET PROJECTIONS FOR FY 2015

(As of January 2015)

OUTLAYS

$3.7 Trillion

REVENUES

$3.2 Trillion

DEFICIT

$468 Billion

DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC
(End of Fiscal Year)

$13.4 Trillion

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR CY 2015

(As of January 2015)

REAL GDP GROWTH (Q4/Q4)

2.9%

INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)

1.4%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q4)

5.5%

INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills)

0.2%
  • Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, March 2015
    Report March 3, 2015

    Under current law, as of March 16, the Treasury will be at the statutory borrowing limit and will need to use so-called extraordinary measures to continue raising cash. Those measures would probably be exhausted by October or November.

  • The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025
    Report January 26, 2015

    Under current law, the deficit is projected to hold steady as a percentage of GDP through 2018, but rise thereafter, raising the already high federal debt. The rate of economic growth is projected to be solid in 2015 and the next few years.

  • The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook
    Report July 15, 2014

    If current laws remained generally unchanged, federal debt held by the public would exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2039 and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.

  • Choices for Deficit Reduction: An Update
    Report December 20, 2013

    Federal debt is projected to rise significantly over the long term. What policy changes could reduce future deficits and thus lower the trajectory of federal debt? What criteria might be used to evaluate those policy changes?