Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook, typically produced in January each year and updated in August, includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law—known as baseline projections—over the next 10 years. CBO also updates its budget projections each spring in conjunction with its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals. By showing outcomes if current laws generally remained in place, the baseline projections provide the Congress with a benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed changes in spending and tax laws. CBO also analyzes the long-term budget outlook.

BUDGET PROJECTIONS FOR FY 2022

(As of )

OUTLAYS

$5.9 Trillion

REVENUES

$4.8 Trillion

DEFICIT

$1.0 Trillion

DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (End of Fiscal Year)

$24.2 Trillion

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR CY 2022

(As of )

REAL GDP GROWTH (Q4/Q4)

3.1%

INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)

4.0%

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Q4)

3.7%

INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills, Q4)

1.4%

  • Report

    In CBO’s projections, assuming that current laws generally remain unchanged, the federal deficit totals $1.0 trillion in fiscal year 2022 and averages $1.6 trillion per year from 2023 to 2032. Real GDP grows by 3.1 percent this year.

  • Blog Post

    CBO will publish The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032 at 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, May 25. A press briefing for credentialed members of the press will be held from 3:00 to 4:00 p.m. that day.

  • Report

    CBO presents its projections of the federal budget for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change. Growth in revenues would be outpaced by growth in spending, leading to rising deficits and debt.

  • Report

    CBO projects that the economic expansion that began in mid-2020 will continue. Real GDP is projected to return to its prepandemic level in mid-2021. The number of people employed is projected to return to its prepandemic level in 2024.

  • Report

    By providing financial support to households, businesses, and state and local governments, federal laws enacted in response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic will offset part of the deterioration in economic conditions brought about by the pandemic.

  • Report

    In this report, CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under alternative assumptions about future fiscal policies and estimates the possible budgetary outcomes.