Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook, typically produced in January each year and updated in August, includes an economic forecast and projections of spending and revenues under current law—known as baseline projections—over the next 10 years. CBO also updates its budget projections each spring in conjunction with its analysis of the President's budgetary proposals. By showing outcomes if current laws generally remained in place, the baseline projections provide the Congress with a benchmark against which to measure the effects of proposed changes in spending and tax laws. CBO also analyzes the long-term budget outlook.


(As of )


$6.4 Trillion


$4.8 Trillion


$1.5 Trillion

DEBT HELD BY THE PUBLIC (End of Fiscal Year)

$25.8 Trillion


(As of )



INFLATION (PCE Price Index, Q4/Q4)




INTEREST RATE (3-Month Treasury Bills, Q4)


  • Report

    In CBO’s latest projections, economic growth slows and then picks up over the 2023–2025 period. That initial slowdown in economic growth drives up unemployment. Inflation continues to gradually decline.

  • Report

    The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.

  • Report

    CBO provides information about how its most recent budget projections would change under different assumptions about future legislated policies.

  • Report

    In this report, CBO uses various measures to assess the quality of its past projections of federal outlays. The analysis focuses on three fiscal years within each projection period: the budget year, the 6th year, and the 11th year.

  • Report

    CBO summarizes in graphic form its projections of what the economy would look like this year and over the next decade if current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remained in place.

  • Report

    In CBO’s projections, the federal deficit totals $1.4 trillion in 2023 and averages $2.0 trillion per year from 2024 to 2033. Real GDP growth comes to a halt in 2023 and then rebounds, averaging 2.4 percent from 2024 to 2027.

  • Report

    CBO describes its current view of the economy over the next two years, compares that view with projections of other forecasters and with those that CBO made previously, and explains the implications for the federal budget.

  • Report

    CBO projects the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of deficits without them—from 2022 to 2032 and provides historical estimates of the stabilizers’ effects since 1972.

  • Report

    In CBO’s projections, assuming that current laws generally remain unchanged, the federal deficit totals $1.0 trillion in fiscal year 2022 and averages $1.6 trillion per year from 2023 to 2032. Real GDP grows by 3.1 percent this year.

  • Report

    CBO projects that the economic expansion that began in mid-2020 will continue. Real GDP is projected to return to its prepandemic level in mid-2021. The number of people employed is projected to return to its prepandemic level in 2024.

  • Report

    By providing financial support to households, businesses, and state and local governments, federal laws enacted in response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic will offset part of the deterioration in economic conditions brought about by the pandemic.