Long-Term Budget Analysis

In addition to preparing budget projections spanning the standard 10-year budget window, CBO also analyzes the outlook for the budget over the next 25 years (and, to a limited extent, over the next 75 years). The agency’s long-term projections show the impact of the aging of the population, rising health care costs, and economic trends on federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt. CBO also analyzes the long-term economic impact of alternative budget policies.

  • Report June 16, 2015

    If current laws remained generally unchanged, federal debt held by the public would exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2040 and continue on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.

  • Report December 18, 2014

    This report presents additional information about the long-term projections CBO made in July 2014 for Social Security’s revenues, outlays, and the distribution of benefits and taxes.