Long-Term Budget Analysis

In addition to preparing budget projections spanning the standard 10-year budget window, CBO also analyzes the outlook for the budget over the next 25 years (and, to a limited extent, over the next 75 years). The agency’s long-term projections show the impact of the aging of the population, rising health care costs, and economic trends on federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt. CBO also analyzes the long-term economic impact of alternative budget policies.

  • Presentation

    These slides summarize CBO’s budget projections as presented in The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook.

  • Report

    What changes in federal budget deficits would be necessary to reduce debt held by the public over the long term? CBO analyzed the primary deficit reductions necessary to meet three different debt targets in four different time frames.

  • Report

    Expanding on its earlier long-term baseline projections, CBO shows how the federal budget and the economy would evolve under three scenarios in which laws would be changed to continue certain policies now in place, leading to higher debt.

  • Report

    If current laws remain generally unchanged, CBO projects, federal budget deficits and debt would increase over the next 30 years—reaching the highest level of debt relative to GDP in the nation’s history by far.

  • Report

    CBOLT is the main analytical tool that CBO uses to make long-term projections of the economy and federal budget. Those projections help shed light on fiscal challenges that extend beyond CBO’s standard 10-year projection window.

  • Report

    If current laws remained generally unchanged, the United States would face steadily increasing federal budget deficits and debt over the next 30 years—reaching the highest level of debt relative to GDP ever experienced in this country.

  • Report

    CBO analyzes 36 policy options commonly proposed by policymakers and analysts. Most of them would improve Social Security’s long-term finances, but only a few would significantly postpone the combined trust funds’ exhaustion date.