Long-Term Budget Analysis

In addition to preparing budget projections spanning the standard 10-year budget window, CBO also analyzes the outlook for the budget over the next 25 years (and, to a limited extent, over the next 75 years). The agency’s long-term projections show the impact of the aging of the population, rising health care costs, and economic trends on federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt. CBO also analyzes the long-term economic impact of alternative budget policies.

  • Report December 16, 2015

    Under current law, CBO projects, Social Security’s trust funds, considered together, will be exhausted in 2029. In that case, benefits in 2030 would need to be reduced by 29 percent from the scheduled amounts.

  • Report December 15, 2015

    CBO analyzes 36 policy options commonly proposed by policymakers and analysts. Most of them would improve Social Security’s long-term finances, but only a few would significantly postpone the combined trust funds’ exhaustion date.

  • Report June 16, 2015

    If current laws remained generally unchanged, federal debt held by the public would exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2040 and continue on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.