Long-Term Budget Analysis

In CBO’s projections, spending for Social Security rises relative to GDP over the next 75 years, and the gap between outlays and revenues widens. If combined, the balances in the program’s trust funds would be exhausted in fiscal year 2034.

CBO analyzed the effects on the budget and the economy of eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s extended baseline—six that vary economic conditions and two that vary budgetary conditions.

The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.

CBO will publish "The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054" on March 20 at 2 p.m. The report will provide projections of federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt for the next 30 years.

In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054. Net immigration increasingly drives population growth, accounting for all population growth beginning in 2040.

Julie Topoleski, CBO’s Director of Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis, testifies about CBO’s demographic projections before the Joint Economic Committee.

CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.

The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook in the coming years, according to CBO's projections. Measured as a percentage of GDP, large and sustained deficits lead to high and rising federal debt that exceeds any previously recorded level.

The U.S. faces a challenging fiscal outlook according to CBO's extended baseline projections, which show budget deficits and federal debt held by the public growing steadily in relation to gross domestic product over the next three decades.

CBO presents its projections of the federal budget for the next 30 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally did not change. Growth in revenues would be outpaced by growth in spending, leading to rising deficits and debt.

Summarizing three reports about the aviation fleets of the U.S. Air Force, Army, and the Department of the Navy, CBO projects the number and costs of aircraft the Department of Defense would need to procure to maintain the fleets’ current size through 2050.

CBOLT is the main analytical tool that CBO uses to make long-term projections of the economy and federal budget. Those projections help shed light on fiscal challenges that extend beyond CBO’s standard 10-year projection window.

CBO analyzes 36 policy options commonly proposed by policymakers and analysts. Most of them would improve Social Security’s long-term finances, but only a few would significantly postpone the combined trust funds’ exhaustion date.