Long-Term Budget Analysis

Extending the 10-year budget projections it published on January 17, 2025, CBO projects that federal debt held by the public, boosted by sustained deficits, will grow far beyond any previously recorded level over the next 30 years.

In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 350 million people in 2025 to 372 million in 2055, and the average age rises. Beginning in 2033, annual deaths exceed annual births, and net immigration accounts for the growth.

CBO estimates how expanding certain children’s eligibility for Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program over the next 10 years would affect the U.S. economy and the federal budget through the end of the century.

In CBO’s projections, spending for Social Security rises relative to GDP over the next 75 years, and the gap between outlays and revenues widens. If combined, the balances in the program’s trust funds would be exhausted in fiscal year 2034.

CBO analyzed the effects on the budget and the economy of eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s extended baseline—six that vary economic conditions and two that vary budgetary conditions.

CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.

Summarizing three reports about the aviation fleets of the U.S. Air Force, Army, and the Department of the Navy, CBO projects the number and costs of aircraft the Department of Defense would need to procure to maintain the fleets’ current size through 2050.

CBOLT is the main analytical tool that CBO uses to make long-term projections of the economy and federal budget. Those projections help shed light on fiscal challenges that extend beyond CBO’s standard 10-year projection window.