Long-Term Budget Analysis

  • Report

    An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034

    In CBO’s projections, the deficit totals nearly $2 trillion this year. Large deficits push federal debt held by the public to 122 percent of GDP in 2034. Economic growth slows to 2.0 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2026 and later years.

  • Report

    The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget

    CBO analyzed the effects on the budget and the economy of eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s extended baseline—six that vary economic conditions and two that vary budgetary conditions.

  • Presentation

    The Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

    Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, at the American Enterprise Institute.

  • Presentation

    The U.S. Budget and Economic Outlook

    Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, at the 2024 Inforum Outlook Conference.

  • Blog Post

    Upcoming Presentations

    CBO's Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses his most recent and upcoming presentations about the agency's long-term budget projections, demographic projections, and the overall fiscal outlook.

  • Report

    The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054

    The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.

  • Blog Post

    CBO to Release Long-Term Budget Projections on March 20

    CBO will publish "The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054" on March 20 at 2 p.m. The report will provide projections of federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt for the next 30 years.

  • Report

    The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034

    In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.

  • Report

    The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054

    In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054. Net immigration increasingly drives population growth, accounting for all population growth beginning in 2040.

  • Presentation

    Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget

    Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.