Long-Term Budget Analysis
- Report
How CBO Uses Discount Rates to Estimate the Present Value of Future Costs or Savings
CBO describes how it selects and uses discount rates to produce estimates for a wide range of federal activities that can have budgetary effects far into the future.
- Report
CBO’s 2024 Long-Term Projections for Social Security
In CBO’s projections, spending for Social Security rises relative to GDP over the next 75 years, and the gap between outlays and revenues widens. If combined, the balances in the program’s trust funds would be exhausted in fiscal year 2034.
- Report
An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
In CBO’s projections, the deficit totals nearly $2 trillion this year. Large deficits push federal debt held by the public to 122 percent of GDP in 2034. Economic growth slows to 2.0 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in 2026 and later years.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed the effects on the budget and the economy of eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s extended baseline—six that vary economic conditions and two that vary budgetary conditions.
- Presentation
The Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, at the American Enterprise Institute.
- Presentation
The U.S. Budget and Economic Outlook
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO’s Director, at the 2024 Inforum Outlook Conference.
- Blog Post
Upcoming Presentations
CBO's Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses his most recent and upcoming presentations about the agency's long-term budget projections, demographic projections, and the overall fiscal outlook.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054
The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Long-Term Budget Projections on March 20
CBO will publish "The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054" on March 20 at 2 p.m. The report will provide projections of federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt for the next 30 years.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.