Long-Term Budget Analysis

  • Blog Post

    Upcoming Presentations

    CBO's Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses his most recent and upcoming presentations about the agency's long-term budget projections, demographic projections, and the overall fiscal outlook.

  • Report

    The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054

    The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.

  • Blog Post

    CBO to Release Long-Term Budget Projections on March 20

    CBO will publish "The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054" on March 20 at 2 p.m. The report will provide projections of federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt for the next 30 years.

  • Report

    The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034

    In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.

  • Report

    The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2054

    In CBO’s projections, the U.S. population increases from 342 million people in 2024 to 383 million people in 2054. Net immigration increasingly drives population growth, accounting for all population growth beginning in 2040.

  • Presentation

    Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget

    Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.

  • Presentation

    CBO’s Role and Most Recent Long-Term Budget Projections

    Presentation by Molly Dahl, Chief of CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit, at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Budget Working Group.

  • Report

    Testimony on CBO’s Demographic Projections

    Julie Topoleski, CBO’s Director of Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis, testifies about CBO’s demographic projections before the Joint Economic Committee.

  • Working Paper

    Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget: Working Paper 2023-07

    On a present-value basis, CBO estimates that long-term fiscal effects of Medicaid spending on children could offset half or more of the program’s initial outlays, depending on sets of reasonable parameter values.

  • Blog Post

    Short-Term Spending and Long-Term Dynamic Effects

    Some federal policies involve short-term expenditures that result in economic and budgetary effects far in the future. CBO has been building analytic capacity to consider a dynamic framework for policies that would have long-term effects.