- Cost Estimate
Analysis of Effects on Social Security of H.R. 860, as introduced on January 30, 2019
In lieu of publishing a separate report providing additional information about CBO’s long-term projections for Social Security, the agency is publishing the data that it would have presented in that report.
In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits remain large by historical standards, and federal debt grows to equal 95 percent of GDP by 2029. Economic growth is expected to slow from 2.3 percent in 2019 to a rate that is below its long-run historical average.
- Blog Post
In our extended baseline projections in The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook, budget deficits drive federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels.
If current laws generally remained unchanged, large budget deficits would boost federal debt to unprecedented levels over the next 30 years, CBO projects.
Under current law, outlays for federal mandatory means-tested programs would grow over the next decade at an average annual rate of 4 percent, whereas spending for mandatory non–means-tested programs would grow at an average rate of almost 6 percent, CBO projects.
Overlapping Generations Model Roundtable: Model Comparisons From a Stylized Social Security Experiment
Presentation by Kerk Phillips, an analyst in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the National Tax Association’s 49th annual Spring Symposium.
- Data and Technical Information
CBO projects a deficit of $896 billion for 2019—$1 billion less than the deficit it projected in January. Federal debt held by the public is projected to grow from 78 percent of gross domestic product in 2019 to 92 percent in 2029.
- Blog Post
This interactive tool lets users select different combinations of policies and see the effect on the finances of the Social Security system, as well as the impact on different groups of people.