An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033


CBO’s updated projections show a federal budget deficit of $1.5 trillion for 2023. That estimate is subject to considerable uncertainty, though, in part because of a recent shortfall in tax revenues.

Data and Supplemental Information

Baseline Projections for Education

Baseline Projections for Health

Corrections and Updates

  • On October 16, 2023, CBO reposted the file accompanying this report with the 10-year budget projections. In that file, in Supplemental Table 2, "CBO's Baseline Projections of Mandatory Outlays," the names of two funds were corrected; the data did not change.
  • On August 2, 2023, CBO reposted “Baseline Projections: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,” to update amounts in the rows labeled “Nutrition Education” and “Total.”
  • On July 21, 2023, CBO reposted “Baseline Projections: Student Loan Programs, Table 6, Federal Subsidy Rates for Student Loans, Fair-Value Estimating Procedures,” to update Parent Loan rates.
  • On May 18, 2023, CBO reposted the table “Baseline Projections: Pell Grant Program” to update amounts for estimated program costs and the estimated surplus entering fiscal year 2024. On May 25, 2023, CBO reposted the table “Baseline Projections: USDA Mandatory Farm Programs” to show the correct Effective Reference Prices for certain commodities.