Reports With Policy Options

CBO analyzes the hypersonic missiles being developed by the U.S. military and compares them with less expensive existing or potential weapons that might fill similar roles, such as cruise missiles or ballistic missiles.

CBO examined three broad options for reconfiguring the military if funding for the Department of Defense was reduced by $1 trillion (in 2022 dollars), or 14 percent, over the next 10 years.

CBO examines the implications of adjusting military basic pay with an alternative wage index and adjusting all components of regular cash pay with the employment cost index.

The Navy’s shipyards have experienced significant delays in completing maintenance on submarines. In this report, CBO projects that required maintenance will continue to exceed the shipyards’ capacity and examines options to reduce delays.

CBO examines two options for establishing a Space National Guard to support active component Space Force personnel, estimating the additional costs beyond those incurred for existing Air and Army National Guard units that have space-related missions.

This report examines some of the challenges U.S. forces might face in a conflict in the Baltic region or the South China Sea and options for mitigating those challenges by procuring and fielding ground-launched long-range missiles.

CBO estimates that the Navy’s plan to modernize and operate its sealift ships over the next 30 years would cost roughly $39 billion. In this report, CBO explores four alternatives that would vary in cost from $34 billion to $40 billion.

CBO examines the differences between cash and accrual accounting for federal retirement and veterans’ benefits, the information that the two types of estimates provide, and ways to expand the use of accrual measures for such benefits.

CBO estimates the added personnel requirements and costs of five kinds of military space organizations. DoD wants to create three, which could increase annual costs by $1 billion to $2 billion and require onetime startup costs of $2 billion to $5 billion.

CBO estimates that the Obama Administration’s 2017 plans for nuclear forces would cost $1.2 trillion (in 2017 dollars) over the 2017–2046 period. CBO analyzed nine options that would reduce those costs or delay some of them.

CBO examined possible changes to the Department of Defense’s Military Health System, analyzing the effects of those changes on the federal budget, the quality of military health care, and preparedness for wartime missions.

The Defense Department could cut federal costs by replacing some military personnel in support positions with civilian employees. If DoD replaced 80,000 military personnel, it could eventually save $3.1 billion to $5.7 billion annually.

The Navy can sustain its forward presence under smaller shipbuilding budgets by using longer deployments, more overseas basing, and more rotating crews. But those methods would offset some of the savings and have other disadvantages.

From 2000 to 2013, the number of veterans receiving VA disability payments rose by nearly 55 percent, and spending for those benefits almost tripled. How might changes in VA's disability compensation program affect the federal budget?

Between 2000 and 2012, the cost of providing health care to service members, retirees, and their families increased by 130 percent (after adjusting for inflation). What approaches might curtail the growth in those costs?

CBO compares the Army’s plan for the GCV with four options and finds that, although no option would meet all of the Army’s goals, all are likely to be less costly and pose a smaller risk of delay than CBO expects for the Army’s plan.

The costs of the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) budget plans through 2021 would be much higher than the funding permitted under the Budget Control Act’s statutory caps. CBO examined four options to cut back on DoD’s forces and activities.

For fiscal year 2013, the Department of Defense (DoD) requested about $150 billion to fund the pay and benefits of current and retired members of the military. That amount is more than one-quarter of DoD’s total base budget request.

Analysis by CBO indicates that an alternative approach would be less expensive than DoD's plan for upgrading its constellation of GPS satellites.

CBO compared the costs of DoD’s plans and the capabilities those plans might provide for reconnaissance and light attack missions with the costs and capabilities of some alternative options.

CBO examines the differences between cash and accrual accounting for federal retirement and veterans’ benefits, the information that the two types of estimates provide, and ways to expand the use of accrual measures for such benefits.

From 2000 to 2013, the number of veterans receiving VA disability payments rose by nearly 55 percent, and spending for those benefits almost tripled. How might changes in VA's disability compensation program affect the federal budget?

The report discusses how the SSI program works, who receives payments, the program’s spending and interaction with other government programs, the extent to which SSI affects people’s work and saving, and approaches to changing the program.

The Disability Insurance program provided benefits to 8.3 million disabled workers in 2011. By 2022, CBO projects, the program will provide benefits to over 10 million disabled workers and spending on benefits will exceed $190 billion.

CBO anticipates that starting in 2016, if current laws remain in place, the program's annual spending will regularly exceed its tax revenues.

CBO examines how enrollment in income-driven plans has changed and how those plans will affect the federal budget. CBO projects the costs of two sets of options that would change the availability of such plans or change borrowers’ payments.

The federal government influences innovation through two broad channels: spending and tax policies, and the legal and regulatory systems. Policymakers have a number of options for spurring additional innovation.

In the 2011–2012 academic year, 9.4 million students received $34 billion in Pell grants. How would tightening eligibility or changing grant amounts affect the program’s costs or the number of recipients?

The interest rate for subsidized student loans is currently scheduled to double from 3.4 percent to 6.8 percent on July 1, 2013. What would be the budgetary impact of changing interest rates for student loans?

This CBO study compares the budgetary and fair-value costs of the federal student loan programs. It also looks at several options for modifying those programs.

Expected annual economic losses from most types of damage caused by hurricane winds and storm-related flooding total $54 billion—$34 billion in losses to households, $9 billion to commercial businesses, and $12 billion to the public sector.

This report describes the structure of the federal crop insurance program, the government’s role and costs, the benefits provided to various groups, and policy options that would decrease federal spending on the program.

CBO finds that premiums collected by the National Flood Insurance Program for policies in effect in August 2016 fell short of the program’s expected costs by $1.4 billion, mainly because of shortfalls in coastal counties.

In this report, CBO analyzes how the government manages access to oil and natural gas on federal lands and eight policy options that could modestly increase federal income from oil and gas leasing without significantly reducing production.

The federal government influences innovation through two broad channels: spending and tax policies, and the legal and regulatory systems. Policymakers have a number of options for spurring additional innovation.

Using the rising amounts of renewable transportation fuels required by the Renewable Fuel Standard will be difficult. CBO looks at how those requirements and alternatives would affect fuel and food prices and greenhouse gas emissions.

A carbon tax or cap-and-trade program could make emission-intensive U.S. products less competitive and increase emissions overseas. Import tariffs related to emissions could reduce those effects but would be hard to implement.

A carbon tax’s effect on the economy depends on how lawmakers would use revenues generated by the tax. The tax would help reduce U.S. emissions but would have only a modest effect on the Earth’s climate without a worldwide effort.

CBO's report assesses how the credits affect the relative cost of owning an electric vehicle, and how cost-effectively the credits reduce gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

CBO’s analysis suggests that the projected high cost of using CCS means that current federal programs are unlikely to support widespread use of the technology. The study discusses several other options that lawmakers might consider.

Improving energy security—the ability of U.S. households and businesses to accommodate disruptions of supply in energy markets—requires considering policies related to the nation’s supply of and demand for oil.

Human activities produce large amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs), primarily carbon dioxide (CO2), and thus contribute to global warming.

CBO summarizes recent research findings about Medicare accountable care organizations and the factors that have contributed to or limited their ability to achieve net budgetary savings for the Medicare program.

CBO’s Director of Health Analysis, Chapin White, testifies on alternative payment models and the slowdown in federal health care spending.

CBO estimates the budgetary effects of options for expanding federal Medicaid payments to states for services provided to Medicaid enrollees ages 21 to 64 who are in inpatient facilities known as institutions for mental diseases.

CBO identified policy approaches that federal lawmakers could adopt to reduce the prices that commercial insurers pay for hospitals’ and physicians’ services, thereby lowering health insurance premiums and the cost of federal subsidies.

CBO examines four policy approaches that could achieve near-universal health insurance coverage.

CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation estimate that, over the next decade, a repeal of the Affordable Care Act would probably increase budget deficits with or without considering the effects of macroeconomic feedback.

Between 2000 and 2012, the cost of providing health care to service members, retirees, and their families increased by 130 percent (after adjusting for inflation). What approaches might curtail the growth in those costs?

This document is a reprint of Chapter 5 of CBO's publication Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2014 to 2023 (November 2013).

CBO's new estimate of the net budgetary savings from adopting this policy is much lower than its earlier estimates for proposals to raise Medicare’s eligibility age. This report describes CBO’s new estimate and the reasons for the change.

CBO analyzes the ways two illustrative options for a premium support system for Medicare would affect federal spending and beneficiaries’ choices and payments.

How does the chained consumer price index (CPI) differ from the traditional CPI and what would be the budgetary effects of using the chained CPI to make automatic adjustments in Social Security, other federal programs, and the tax code?

For fiscal year 2013, the Department of Defense (DoD) requested about $150 billion to fund the pay and benefits of current and retired members of the military. That amount is more than one-quarter of DoD’s total base budget request.

Raising the ages at which people can collect Medicare and Social Security would reduce federal spending and increase federal revenues by inducing some people to work longer.

CBO projects that the future costs for VA to treat enrolled veterans will be substantially higher (in inflation-adjusted dollars) than recent appropriations for that purpose.

This report discusses a range of threats that could cause widespread, long-lasting disruptions for the electric grid. CBO examines two illustrative approaches to enhance the security of the electric grid and highlights some considerations for policymakers to take into account.

Scanning and imaging all U.S.-bound shipping containers at overseas ports would cost $12 billion to $32 billion over 10 years, CBO estimates. Boosting the number of containers imaged at U.S. ports instead would cost considerably less.

The federal program that provides insurance against the risk of terrorism expired at the end of 2014. CBO has examined various options for the program and their likely effects on the private sector and on the federal government.

In this report, CBO examines how FHA’s Home Equity Conversion Mortgage program works, how it affects the federal budget, and how various policy approaches might reduce costs and risks to the government or to borrowers.

CBO reviews Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s program to transfer some of the credit risk of their guarantees to investors and analyzes two approaches for expanding those efforts.

CBO analyzes options to reduce FHA’s exposure to risk from its program to guarantee single-family mortgages, including creating a larger role for private lenders and restricting the availability of FHA’s guarantees.

CBO reviews the federal government’s current role in the multifamily mortgage market and four broad approaches to modifying that role.

CBO describes federal housing assistance to low-income households and how it has changed since 2000, provides information about the households that receive assistance, and assesses options for altering that assistance.

CBO analyzed possible transitions to four alternative market structures that involve choices about whether and how the government would continue to guarantee payment on mortgages and mortgage-backed securities.

CBO examined three options for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to use principal forgiveness for certain underwater borrowers. How would those options affect the number of mortgage defaults, the federal budget, and the overall economy?

Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives

This report examines approaches to budgeting that would distinguish expenditures for investment in physical capital, education, and research and development from other expenditures.

CBO discusses choices about revenues and spending that lawmakers face in addressing the shortfall in the Highway Trust Fund as well as options for subsidizing state and local governments’ financing of highway projects.

CBO examines choices lawmakers would face in establishing a federal tax on the miles traveled by commercial trucks—including choices about the tax base, rate structure, and implementation methods—and illustrates how such a tax might affect the federal budget.

Scanning and imaging all U.S.-bound shipping containers at overseas ports would cost $12 billion to $32 billion over 10 years, CBO estimates. Boosting the number of containers imaged at U.S. ports instead would cost considerably less.

How can lawmakers address the imbalance between revenues and spending in the Highway Trust Fund? How does the unique budgetary classification of surface transportation programs limit the effectiveness of standard spending controls?

With its current revenue sources, the Highway Trust Fund cannot support spending at the current rate. The fund’s projected shortfalls have generated increased interest in borrowing by state and local governments to finance highway projects.

CBO's report assesses how the credits affect the relative cost of owning an electric vehicle, and how cost-effectively the credits reduce gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

CBO analyzes an illustrative federal infrastructure bank for transportation—one that is representative of those in many recent proposals.

CBO examines how a proposed rule to tighten fuel economy standards for cars, pick-up trucks and other light-duty vehicles would affect cash flows of the Highway Trust Fund.

This study examines broad alternatives for federal funding of highways, focusing on fuel taxes and on taxes that could be assessed on the basis of the number of miles that vehicles travel.

CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation estimate that lowering the age of Medicare eligibility to 60 would increase federal budget deficits, change primary sources of health insurance, and increase the number of people insured.

CBO analyzes the economic effects of waiting to stabilize federal debt. The longer action is delayed, the larger the policy changes needed to stabilize debt. The timing and type of policy would determine its effects on different age and income groups.

CBO presents new estimates of the budgetary effects of options for a premium support system for Medicare and examines the reasons for the changes in the estimates, including changes in law that have affected the Medicare program.

CBO's new estimate of the net budgetary savings from adopting this policy is much lower than its earlier estimates for proposals to raise Medicare’s eligibility age. This report describes CBO’s new estimate and the reasons for the change.

CBO analyzes the ways two illustrative options for a premium support system for Medicare would affect federal spending and beneficiaries’ choices and payments.

How does the chained consumer price index (CPI) differ from the traditional CPI and what would be the budgetary effects of using the chained CPI to make automatic adjustments in Social Security, other federal programs, and the tax code?

Raising the ages at which people can collect Medicare and Social Security would reduce federal spending and increase federal revenues by inducing some people to work longer.

CBO estimates the budgetary effects of options for expanding federal Medicaid payments to states for services provided to Medicaid enrollees ages 21 to 64 who are in inpatient facilities known as institutions for mental diseases.

CBO analyzes the effects of work requirements and work supports on employment and income of participants in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, and Medicaid.

The federal minimum wage is $7.25 per hour for most workers. In this report, CBO examines how increasing the federal minimum wage to $10, $12, or $15 per hour by 2025 would affect employment and family income.

Since 1990, real spending for child nutrition programs more than doubled—to $20 billion in 2014. CBO expects that increases in food prices and demographic changes will cause spending to rise further in the future.

CBO describes federal housing assistance to low-income households and how it has changed since 2000, provides information about the households that receive assistance, and assesses options for altering that assistance.

CBO examines several options that would reduce federal spending on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and the effects they would have on households with different amounts of income.

This report examines spending on TANF, how TANF compares to other low-income support programs, and the effects of TANF on employment. CBO also analyzes policy options that would change the program’s funding and requirements for states.

Raising the minimum wage would increase family income for many low-wage workers, moving some of them out of poverty. But some jobs for low-wage workers would probably be eliminated and the income of those workers would fall substantially.

How does the chained consumer price index (CPI) differ from the traditional CPI and what would be the budgetary effects of using the chained CPI to make automatic adjustments in Social Security, other federal programs, and the tax code?

The report discusses how the SSI program works, who receives payments, the program’s spending and interaction with other government programs, the extent to which SSI affects people’s work and saving, and approaches to changing the program.

Between 2007 and 2010, unemployment benefits expanded nearly five-fold owing to high unemployment due to the weak economy, and decisions by policymakers to increase the number of weeks for which unemployed workers could receive benefits.

One in seven U.S. residents received benefits through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) in 2011, at a total cost of $78 billion. Spending on SNAP benefits more than doubled between 2007 and 2011.

The rate of unemployment in the United States has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, and CBO projects that it will remain above 8 percent until 2014.

CBO examines the differences between cash and accrual accounting for federal retirement and veterans’ benefits, the information that the two types of estimates provide, and ways to expand the use of accrual measures for such benefits.

CBO analyzes the impact of retirement benefits on the federal budget and on the compensation, recruitment, and retention of its employees. It assesses the short-term and long-term effects of potential changes to those benefits.

Under current law, CBO projects, Social Security’s trust funds, considered together, will be exhausted in 2029. In that case, benefits in 2030 would need to be reduced by 29 percent from the scheduled amounts.

CBO analyzes 36 policy options commonly proposed by policymakers and analysts. Most of them would improve Social Security’s long-term finances, but only a few would significantly postpone the combined trust funds’ exhaustion date.

CBO examined the implications of various approaches to altering the Social Security payroll tax rates as well as the taxable maximum (the maximum amount of earnings on which those payroll taxes are imposed).

CBO's new estimate of the net budgetary savings from adopting this policy is much lower than its earlier estimates for proposals to raise Medicare’s eligibility age. This report describes CBO’s new estimate and the reasons for the change.

How does the chained consumer price index (CPI) differ from the traditional CPI and what would be the budgetary effects of using the chained CPI to make automatic adjustments in Social Security, other federal programs, and the tax code?

The Disability Insurance program provided benefits to 8.3 million disabled workers in 2011. By 2022, CBO projects, the program will provide benefits to over 10 million disabled workers and spending on benefits will exceed $190 billion.

Raising the ages at which people can collect Medicare and Social Security would reduce federal spending and increase federal revenues by inducing some people to work longer.

CBO anticipates that starting in 2016, if current laws remain in place, the program's annual spending will regularly exceed its tax revenues.

CBO describes how funding for the IRS affects CBO’s revenue projections and how CBO estimates the revenue effects of rescissions of such funding. CBO also estimates the budgetary effects of rescinding varying amounts of the IRS’s funding.

CBO analyzes the economic effects of waiting to stabilize federal debt. The longer action is delayed, the larger the policy changes needed to stabilize debt. The timing and type of policy would determine its effects on different age and income groups.

CBO examines the falloff in entrepreneurship, its potential economic consequences, factors that have contributed to it, and ways that federal policies could be changed to reverse the trend.

By providing financial support to households, businesses, and state and local governments, federal laws enacted in response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic will offset part of the deterioration in economic conditions brought about by the pandemic.

CBO examines the IRS’s enforcement activities between 2010 and 2018 and analyzes how the decline in those activities reflects the decline in its funding and staff over that period. CBO also estimates how changes to the IRS’s budget could affect federal revenues.

On average, the effective marginal tax rate on capital income is 18 percent, but that rate varies significantly by sector. In this report, CBO estimates effective rates under current law and eight policy options.

A carbon tax’s effect on the economy depends on how lawmakers would use revenues generated by the tax. The tax would help reduce U.S. emissions but would have only a modest effect on the Earth’s climate without a worldwide effort.

How does the chained consumer price index (CPI) differ from the traditional CPI and what would be the budgetary effects of using the chained CPI to make automatic adjustments in Social Security, other federal programs, and the tax code?

How the federal government taxes U.S. multinational corporations has consequences for the U.S. economy and for the federal budget.

Since the individual income tax was instituted in 1913, the profits of most businesses have been allocated, or “passed through,” to their owners and subjected to that tax—rather than to the corporate income tax.

CBO analyzed three options that would modify the way that income for the self-employed would be taxed.

CBO's report assesses how the credits affect the relative cost of owning an electric vehicle, and how cost-effectively the credits reduce gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

CBO has analyzed the impact of a hypothetical increase in the federal excise tax on cigarettes to demonstrate the complex links between policies that aim to improve health and effects on the federal budget.