
Future Plans and a Review of 2021
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Transparency is a top priority for CBO, and the agency continues to bolster its efforts to be transparent. CBO is committed to maintaining equitable access to the information and analysis that it provides, ensuring that its work is widely available to the Congress and the public. Those efforts help CBO continue its long-standing dedication to providing clear, objective, insightful, and timely information.
CBO’s transparency efforts have three principal goals:
- To promote a thorough understanding of CBO’s analyses through accessible, clear, and detailed communication;
- To help people gauge how estimates might change if policies or circumstances differed; and
- To enhance the credibility of the agency’s analyses and processes by showing the underlying data, professional research, and feedback from experts.
To achieve those goals, CBO undertakes the following activities:
Testifying and Publishing Answers to Questions
CBO testifies at Congressional hearings and publishes answers to Members’ subsequent questions on its website.
- Testimony on a Single-Payer Health Care System That Is Based on Medicare’s Fee-for-Service Program
- Testimony on CBO’s Appropriation Request for Fiscal Year 2023 --
- Testimony on CBO’s Efforts to Enhance Its Transparency, Effectiveness, and Efficiency --
- Testimony on Options for Funding and Financing Highway Spending --
- Testimony on CBO’s Appropriation Request for Fiscal Year 2022 --
- Testimony on Addressing the Long-Term Solvency of the Highway Trust Fund --
- Testimony on CBO’s Appropriation Request for Fiscal Year 2022 --
- Testimony on CBO's 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook --
- Testimony on CBO's 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook --
- Testimony on CBO’s Appropriation Request for Fiscal Year 2021 --
Explaining Analytical Methods
CBO publishes documents explaining its analyses, including its general approach and particular instances. In addition, most cost estimates include a section describing the basis of the estimate. To enable researchers to replicate its results, the agency posts segments of the computer code for some analyses.
General Information
- CBO Releases an Improved Interactive Tool for Analyzing the Military’s Forces and Resources
- Analyzing How the Effects of Federal Policies May Differ by Race and Ethnicity
- Availability and Use of F-35 Fighter Aircraft
- Federal Financial Support for Public Transportation
- Ginnie Mae and the Securitization of Federally Guaranteed Mortgages
- Availability and Use of Aircraft in the Air Force and Navy (See page 1)
- Using Survey Data for Tax Analysis
- How Specifications of the Reference Tax System Affect CBO’s Estimates of Tax Expenditures
- Economic Effects of Offering a Federal Paid Family and Medical Leave Program
- Economic Effects of Expanding Home- and Community-Based Services in Medicaid
Technical Information
- Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections: Working Paper 2022-07
- A Model for Pricing Federal Housing Finance Obligations: Working Paper 2022-06
- A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05
- Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher and Lower Interest Rates: Working Paper 2022-04
- Inflation Expectations and Their Formation: Working Paper 2022-03
- Economic Effects of Five Illustrative Single-Payer Health Care Systems: Working Paper 2022-02
- CBO’s Model for Estimating the Effect That Federal Taxes Have on Capital Income From New Investment: Working Paper 2022-01
- How Carbon Dioxide Emissions Would Respond to a Tax or Allowance Price: An Update: Working Paper 2021-16
- Data and Methods for Constructing Synthetic Firms in CBO’s Health Insurance Simulation Model, HISIM2: Working Paper 2021-15
- How CBO Estimates the Market Risk of Federal Credit Programs: Working Paper 2021-14
Technical Information Including Computer Code
- CBO’s Model for Estimating the Effect That Federal Taxes Have on Capital Income From New Investment: Working Paper 2022-01
- How Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage Could Affect Employment and Family Income
- How CBO Adjusts for Underreporting of Means-Tested Transfers in Its Distributional Analyses
- How CBO Models Firms' Behavior in HISIM2 in Its Baseline Budget Projections as of March 6, 2020
- Financial Regulation and the Federal Budget
- The Role of the Federal Housing Administration in the Reverse-Mortgage Market
- HISIM2—The Health Insurance Simulation Model Used in Preparing CBO’s Spring 2019 Baseline Budget Projections
- How CBO Adjusts for Survey Underreporting of Transfer Income in Its Distributional Analyses: Working Paper 2018-07
- Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using CBO’s Forecasting Growth Model: Working Paper 2018-03
Examples in Cost Estimates
Releasing Data
CBO provides many data files underlying the analysis for its major reports and other studies. The agency maintains a web page with links to many years of data, demonstrating the underpinnings of key projections.
Collections of Releases
Recent Publications with Data Files
- Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher and Lower Interest Rates: Working Paper 2022-04
- Expired and Expiring Authorizations of Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2022—Information for Legislation Enacted Through September 30, 2021
- Long-Term Costs of the Administration’s 2022 Defense Budget
- Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2022
- The Distribution of Household Income, 2018
- An Analysis of Certain Proposals in the President’s 2022 Budget
- Additional Information About the Updated Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031
- CBO’s 2021 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
- An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031
- The U.S. Military’s Force Structure: A Primer, 2021 Update
Analyzing the Accuracy of CBO's Estimates
CBO regularly releases comparisons of the agency’s projections with actual outcomes.
- The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2021
- CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2021 Update
- The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2020
- A Review of CBO’s Estimate of Spending From the Department of Defense’s Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Fund
- An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Revenue Projections
- CBO's Oil Price Forecasting Record: Working Paper 2020-03
- The Accuracy of CBO’s Baseline Estimates for Fiscal Year 2019
- CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update
- An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Deficit and Debt Projections
- Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance Coverage for People Under Age 65: 2019 to 2029(See Chapter 3)
Comparing Current Estimates With Previous Ones
In several of its recurring publications, CBO explains the differences between this year’s and last year’s projections. In addition, cost estimates explain the extent to which provisions and estimates resemble or differ from earlier ones.
- Report on the Troubled Asset Relief Program—May 2022
- The Role of the Department of Veterans Affairs in the Single-Family Mortgage Market
- Effects of Physical Infrastructure Spending on the Economy and the Budget Under Two Illustrative Scenarios
- Additional Information About the Updated Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031
- Report on the Troubled Asset Relief Program—July 2021
- An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031
- Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2021 to 2030
- Additional Information About the Budget Outlook: 2021 to 2031
- The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- Additional Information About the Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031
Comparing CBO’s Estimates With Those of Other Organizations
CBO regularly compares its work with the budget projections of the Administration, with the economic projections of private forecasters and other government agencies, and sometimes with the policy analyses of various organizations. Comparisons are often discussed with Congressional staff when time does not allow for preparing a formal presentation.
- Budgetary Effects of Higher Inflation and Interest Rates
- CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2021 Update
- Fiscal Substitution in Spending for Highway Infrastructure: Working Paper 2021-13
- The Role of the Department of Veterans Affairs in the Single-Family Mortgage Market
- An Analysis of Certain Proposals in the President’s 2022 Budget
- Additional Information About the Updated Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031
- An Analysis of the Navy’s December 2020 Shipbuilding Plan (See Appendix B)
- Additional Information About the Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031
- How CBO Analyzes the Costs of Proposals for Single-Payer Health Care Systems That Are Based on Medicare’s Fee-for-Service Program: Working Paper 2020-08
- An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Revenue Projections
Estimating the Effects of Policy Alternatives
To assist policymakers and analysts who may hold differing views about the most useful benchmark for considering possible changes to laws (and to make the consequences of alternative policies more transparent), CBO estimates the effects that some alternative assumptions about future policies would have on budgetary outcomes.
- Budgetary Effects of a Policy That Would Lower the Age of Eligibility for Medicare to 60
- The Economic Effects of Waiting to Stabilize Federal Debt
- Economic Effects of Five Illustrative Single-Payer Health Care Systems: Working Paper 2022-02
- Illustrative Options for National Defense Under a Smaller Defense Budget
- How Changes in the Distribution of Earnings Affect the Federal Deficit: Working Paper 2021-12
- An Analysis of the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2022 Shipbuilding Plan
- Alternative Approaches to Adjusting Military Cash Pay
- Effects of Physical Infrastructure Spending on the Economy and the Budget Under Two Illustrative Scenarios
- Budgeting for Federal Investment
- A Public Option for Health Insurance in the Nongroup Marketplaces: Key Design Considerations and Implications
Characterizing Uncertainty Surrounding Estimates
CBO’s budget and economic estimates reflect the middle of a range of outcomes under a given set of policies. Discussion of uncertainty helps policymakers understand the factors that might cause estimates or outcomes to differ in the future.
- CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2021 Update
- Additional Information About the Updated Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031
- Workbook for How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget, June 2021
- The 2021 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- Additional Information About the Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031
- How Changes in Revenues and Outlays Would Affect Debt Service, Deficits, and Debt
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031
- The Budgetary Effects of the Raise the Wage Act of 2021
- Federal Net Interest Costs: A Primer (See pages 14-17)
- How Changes in Revenues and Outlays Would Affect Debt Service, Deficits, and Debt
Visualizing Data
CBO’s chart books, slide decks, and infographics about the budget and the economy help make its projections easier to understand.
- CBO’s Interactive Force Structure Tool
- Availability and Use of F-35 Fighter Aircraft
- The Prices That Commercial Health Insurers and Medicare Pay for Hospitals’ and Physicians’ Services
- Availability and Use of Aircraft in the Air Force and Navy
- The Effects of Large-Scale Maintenance Actions on the Availability of the Air Force’s Aircraft
- The Distribution of Household Income, 2018
- Discretionary Spending in Fiscal Year 2020: An Infographic
- The Federal Budget in Fiscal Year 2020: An Infographic
- Revenues in Fiscal Year 2020: An Infographic
- Mandatory Spending in Fiscal Year 2020: An Infographic
Conducting Outreach
CBO’s staff communicates with people outside the agency every day to explain CBO’s findings and methods and get feedback that helps maintain and improve the quality of the agency’s work. CBO’s most important outreach is its direct communication with the Congress. The Director meets regularly with Members of Congress to explain the agency’s work, respond to questions, and obtain feedback. CBO also publishes blog posts and podcasts highlighting key issues.
Panels of Advisers
Multimedia
- How CBO Analyzes Approaches to Improve Health Through Disease Prevention
- The Employment of Foreign-Born People
- Interim Economic Projections for 2020 and 2021
- CBO’s Current Economic Projections and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits and Debt for 2020 and 2021
- The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 23 Slides
- The Economic Outlook for 2019 to 2029 in 21 Slides
- Navy Ship Construction: From the Budget Control Act to Building a New Fleet
- Transparency
- Budget 101
- CBO’s Cost Estimates
Presentations about CBO’s Processes
- How CBO Analyzes the Distribution of Household Income, Means-Tested Transfers, and Taxes
- Key Tenets of Effective Communication at the Congressional Budget Office
- Dynamic Analysis at the U.S. Congressional Budget Office
- How CBO Estimates the Market Risk of Federal Credit Programs
- The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
- How CBO Evaluates Health Care Proposals
- CBO’s Projections of Tax Revenues
- Data and Methods for Constructing Synthetic Firms in CBO’s Health Insurance Simulation Model, HISIM2
- Information Sources for Policymakers: Congressional Budget Office 101
- How CBO Adjusts for Underreporting of Means-Tested Transfers in Its Distributional Analyses
Presentations about CBO’s Work in Progress
- The Contribution of Changes in Drug Mix and Price Growth to the Rising Costs of Brand-Name Drugs in Medicare Part D
- Highlights of CBO's Recent Transparency Efforts
- Shipbuilding and Expeditionary Warfare Operations
- Navy Shipbuilding: Prospects for Building a Larger Fleet
- The 2021 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Prospects and Challenges in Building a Larger Fleet
- The Role of Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Plans in the Distribution of Family Wealth
- CBO’s Current Economic Projections and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits and Debt for 2020 and 2021
- Allocating State and Local Taxes to U.S. Households
- Potential Spending on Veterans’ Health Care, 2018–2028
- How CBO Is Updating Its Health Insurance Simulation Model
Presentations about CBO’s Findings
- Challenges of Adapting DoD’s Acquisition Portfolio to a New Defense Strategy
- Government Spending on Public Transportation and Other Infrastructure
- A Discussion of Recent Research on Health Care Prices: Prescription Drugs, Hospitals’ Services, and Physicians’ Services
- Variation in Prices for Hospitals’ Services
- The Effect of Employer Matching and Defaults on Workers’ TSP Savings Behavior
- A Presentation on the Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher or Lower Interest Rates
- Navy Shipbuilding: Prospects for Building a Larger Fleet
- How Carbon Dioxide Emissions Would Respond to a Tax
- CBO’s Model of New Drug Development
- Navy Shipbuilding: Congressional Perspectives and the Navy’s 2022 Plan
Other Outreach
- CBO to Publish Budget and Economic Projections on May 25
- Analyzing How the Effects of Federal Policies May Differ by Race and Ethnicity
- Some Presentations
- CBO’s Recent Publications and Work in Progress as of March 31, 2022
- The Publication Date of CBO’s Baseline Projections and CBO’s Process for Setting Priorities
- Update on the Timing of CBO’s Budget and Economic Projections
- Upcoming Presentations
- Federal Debt Under Alternative Paths for Interest Rates
- Transparency at CBO: Future Plans and a Review of 2021
- Budgetary Effects of Higher Inflation and Interest Rates