
Future Plans and a Review of 2022
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Transparency is a top priority for CBO. The agency is committed to providing equal and open access to the information and analysis it produces and to ensuring that its work is widely available to the Congress and the public. Those efforts help CBO maintain its long-standing commitment to present clear, objective, insightful, and timely information.
CBO’s transparency efforts have three principal goals:
- To promote a thorough understanding of the agency's analyses through accessible, clear, and detailed communication;
- To help people gauge how its estimates might change if policies or circumstances differed; and
- To enhance the credibility of the agency’s analyses and processes by showing the underlying data, professional research, and feedback from experts.
To achieve those goals, CBO undertakes the following activities:
Testifying and Publishing Answers to Questions
Representatives of CBO testify at Congressional hearings, and the agency publishes answers to Members' subsequent questions on its website.
- Testimony on Approaches to Reducing the Department of Defense’s Compensation Costs --
- Testimony on Social Security’s Finances --
- Testimony on Social Security’s Finances --
- Testimony on the Congressional Budget Office’s Request for Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2024 --
- Testimony on the Congressional Budget Office’s Request for Appropriations for Fiscal Year 2024
- Statement for the Record Regarding How CBO Would Estimate the Effects of Future Authorizing Legislation on Spending From the Toxic Exposures Fund
- Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing on CBO’s Appropriation Request for Fiscal Year 2023
- Testimony on the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2022 to 2032 --
- Testimony on a Single-Payer Health Care System That Is Based on Medicare’s Fee-for-Service Program --
- Testimony on CBO’s Appropriation Request for Fiscal Year 2023 --
Explaining Analytical Methods
CBO publishes documents explaining its analyses, including its general approach and particular applications of its methods. In addition, most cost estimates include a section describing the basis of the estimate. To enable researchers to replicate its results, the agency posts segments of the computer code for some analyses.
General Information
- Federal Budgetary Effects of the Activities of the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation
- Communities at Risk of Flooding
- The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
- The Economic and Budgetary Effects of Discretionary Funding Caps as Specified in the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 (See pages 8-10)
- CBO Explains Its Principles for Identifying Mandates in Legislation
- CBO Explains the Statutory Foundations of Its Budget Baseline
- Trends in Corporate Economic Profits and Tax Payments, 1998 to 2017
- The Medicare and Medicaid Improvement Funds: Budgetary History and Projections
- CBO Explains How It Develops the Budget Baseline
- CBO Describes Its Cost-Estimating Process
Technical Information
- Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance: 2023 to 2033
- Modeling the Demand for Electric Vehicles and the Supply of Charging Stations in the United States: Working Paper 2023-06
- DECKPLATE and AMSRR: Comparing Two Ways to Measure the Availability of F/A-18E/F Super Hornet Aircraft
- CBO Explains How It Estimates Savings From Rescissions
- Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack: Working Paper 2023-05
- The Effects of Work Requirements on the Employment and Income of TANF Participants: Working Paper 2023-03
- Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Plans and the Distribution of Family Wealth: Working Paper 2023-02
- Assessing the Budgetary Implications of Economic Uncertainty With CBO’s Incomes Model and Budgetary Feedback Model
- Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model
- Estimating the Uncertainty of the Economic Forecast Using CBO’s Expanded Markov-Switching Model
Technical Information Including Computer Code
- The Welfare Effects of Debt: Crowding Out and Risk Shifting: Working Paper 2022-10
- How Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage Could Affect Employment and Family Income
- CBO’s Model for Estimating the Effect That Federal Taxes Have on Capital Income From New Investment: Working Paper 2022-01
- How CBO Adjusts for Underreporting of Means-Tested Transfers in Its Distributional Analyses
- How CBO Models Firms' Behavior in HISIM2 in Its Baseline Budget Projections as of March 6, 2020
- Financial Regulation and the Federal Budget
- The Role of the Federal Housing Administration in the Reverse-Mortgage Market
- HISIM2—The Health Insurance Simulation Model Used in Preparing CBO’s Spring 2019 Baseline Budget Projections
- How CBO Adjusts for Survey Underreporting of Transfer Income in Its Distributional Analyses: Working Paper 2018-07
- Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using CBO’s Forecasting Growth Model: Working Paper 2018-03
Examples in Cost Estimates
Releasing Data
CBO supplies many files containing the data underlying the analysis for its major reports and other studies. The agency maintains a web page with links to many years' worth of data, demonstrating the underpinnings of key projections.
Collections of Releases
Recent Publications with Data Files
- Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance: 2023 to 2033
- CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts: 2023 to 2033
- Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2024
- An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2025
- The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
- Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2023 to 2032
- CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Projections for Social Security
- The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- Automatic Stabilizers in the Federal Budget: 2023 to 2033
- An Analysis of the Discretionary Spending Proposals in the President’s 2024 Budget
Analyzing the Accuracy of CBO's Estimates
CBO regularly releases comparisons of its projections with actual outcomes.
- CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2023 Update
- An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Outlays From 1984 to 2021
- CBO’s Projections of Federal Health Care Spending
- The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2022
- How the Housing Trust Fund and Capital Magnet Fund Support Affordable Housing
- Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance Coverage for People Under 65: 2022 to 2032
- The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2021
- CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2021 Update
- The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2020
- A Review of CBO’s Estimate of Spending From the Department of Defense’s Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Fund
Comparing Current Estimates With Previous Ones
In several of its recurring publications, CBO explains the differences between its current projections and those from the previous year. In addition, cost estimates explain the extent to which provisions and estimates resemble or differ from earlier ones.
- Federal Budgetary Effects of the Activities of the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation
- Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2024
- An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2025
- Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2023 to 2032
- The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- How the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 Affects CBO’s Projections of Federal Debt
- An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033
- An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Outlays From 1984 to 2021
- CBO’s Projections of Federal Health Care Spending
- The Economic Outlook for 2023 to 2033 in 16 Charts
Comparing CBO’s Estimates With Those of Other Organizations
CBO regularly compares its work with the budget projections of the Administration, with the economic projections of private-sector forecasters and other government agencies, and sometimes with the policy analyses of various organizations. Comparisons are often discussed with Congressional staff when time does not allow for preparing a formal presentation.
- An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2025
- CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2023 Update
- An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Outlays From 1984 to 2021
- Costs of the Proposed Income-Driven Repayment Plan for Student Loans
- The Effects of Work Requirements on the Employment and Income of TANF Participants: Working Paper 2023-03
- The Economic Outlook for 2023 to 2033 in 16 Charts
- The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2033
- Questions About CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Implications for Households and the Federal Budget
- CBO’s Current View of the Economy in 2023 and 2024 and the Budgetary Implications
- An Analysis of the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2023 Shipbuilding Plan
Estimating the Effects of Alternative Policies
To assist policymakers and analysts who may hold differing views about the most useful benchmark for considering possible changes to laws (and to make the consequences of alternative policies more transparent), CBO estimates the effects that some alternative assumptions about future policies would have on budgetary outcomes.
- The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
- The Economic and Budgetary Effects of Discretionary Funding Caps as Specified in the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023
- Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Spending and Revenues
- Budgetary Effects of Policies to Modify or Eliminate Medicaid’s Institutions for Mental Diseases Exclusion
- U.S. Hypersonic Weapons and Alternatives
- Current Work on the Distributional Analysis of Household Income Resulting From Policy Changes: Working Paper 2022-09
- Options for Reducing the Deficit, 2023 to 2032--Volume I: Larger Reductions
- Options for Reducing the Deficit, 2023 to 2032--Volume II: Smaller Reductions
- Policy Approaches to Reduce What Commercial Insurers Pay for Hospitals’ and Physicians’ Services
- How Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage Could Affect Employment and Family Income
Characterizing the Uncertainty of Estimates
CBO's budget and economic estimates are in the middle of a range of likely outcomes under a given set of policies. Discussion of uncertainty helps policymakers understand the factors that might cause estimates or outcomes to differ in the future.
- Federal Budgetary Effects of the Activities of the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Innovation
- Communities at Risk of Flooding
- An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2025
- The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
- CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2023 Update
- The 2023 Long-Term Budget Outlook
- An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2023 to 2033
- How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2023 to 2033
- An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Outlays From 1984 to 2021
- CBO Describes Its Cost-Estimating Process
Visualizing Data
CBO's chart books, visual reports, slide decks, and infographics about the budget and the economy help make the agency's projections easier to understand.
- Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance: 2023 to 2033
- Communities at Risk of Flooding
- Purposes and Uses of Special and Incentive Pay for Military Personnel
- Alternative Ways to Provide Fuel Within the Department of Defense
- DECKPLATE and AMSRR: Comparing Two Ways to Measure the Availability of F/A-18E/F Super Hornet Aircraft
- CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Projections for Social Security
- A Guide for Choosing Graphics
- Large Constellations of Low-Altitude Satellites: A Primer
- An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Outlays From 1984 to 2021
- The Foreign-Born Population, the U.S. Economy, and the Federal Budget
Conducting Outreach
CBO's staff communicates with people outside the agency every day to explain CBO's findings and methods and to receive feedback that helps maintain and improve the quality of the agency's work. CBO's most important outreach is its direct communication with the Congress. The Director meets regularly with Members of Congress to explain the agency's work, respond to questions, and obtain feedback. CBO also publishes blog posts highlighting key issues.
Panels of Advisers
Multimedia
- How CBO Analyzes Approaches to Improve Health Through Disease Prevention
- The Employment of Foreign-Born People
- Interim Economic Projections for 2020 and 2021
- CBO’s Current Economic Projections and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits and Debt for 2020 and 2021
- The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 23 Slides
- The Economic Outlook for 2019 to 2029 in 21 Slides
- Navy Ship Construction: From the Budget Control Act to Building a New Fleet
- Transparency
- Budget 101
- CBO’s Cost Estimates
Presentations about CBO’s Processes
- The Federal Budget Process and the Role of the Congressional Budget Office
- CBO’s Long-Term Projections of Labor Force Participation Rates
- How CBO Acquires Data, Evaluates Its Estimates, and Makes Its Work Transparent
- How Research Is Used to Assess Policy Proposals at CBO
- CBO’s Projections of Realized Capital Gains Subject to the Individual Income Tax
- The U.S. Tax Gap and Revenue Estimates From Increased Funding for the Internal Revenue Service
- CBO’s Medicaid Baseline Forecast
- Independent Fiscal Institutions in Theory and in Practice
- Information Sources for Policymakers: Congressional Budget Office 101
- Highlights of CBO’s Recent Transparency Efforts
Presentations about CBO’s Work in Progress
- How CBO Supports Congress
- The Contribution of Changes in Drug Mix and Price Growth to the Rising Costs of Brand-Name Drugs in Medicare Part D
- Highlights of CBO's Recent Transparency Efforts
- Shipbuilding and Expeditionary Warfare Operations
- Navy Shipbuilding: Prospects for Building a Larger Fleet
- The 2021 Outlook for Navy Shipbuilding: Prospects and Challenges in Building a Larger Fleet
- The Role of Defined Benefit and Defined Contribution Plans in the Distribution of Family Wealth
- CBO’s Current Economic Projections and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits and Debt for 2020 and 2021
- Potential Spending on Veterans’ Health Care, 2018–2028
- Allocating State and Local Taxes to U.S. Households
Presentations about CBO’s Findings
- CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Budget Projections
- The U.S. Economic Outlook
- Contingent Financial Liabilities of the Federal Government
- CBO’s Economic Forecast: Understanding Productivity Growth
- Projected Effects of Federal Policies on the Demand for Electric Vehicles and the Supply of Charging Stations
- The Army’s Costs to Eliminate Its Deferred Maintenance Backlog and to Renovate and Modernize Its Buildings
- CBO’s Role in the Federal Budget Process and Its Work Assessing Climate Change and Related Policies
- Health Insurance for People Younger Than Age 65: Expiration of Temporary Policies Projected to Reshuffle Coverage, 2023 to 2033
- Federal Health Spending Update
- The Budget Outlook and Options for Reducing the Deficit
Other Outreach
- CBO’s Plans in the Event of a Government Shutdown
- CBO’s Long-Term Projections of Gross Federal Debt
- Latest Presentations
- CBO’s Panel of Health Advisers, 2023
- Director’s Statement on Reappointment
- Request for a Cost Estimate for the Primary Care and Health Workforce Expansion Act
- A Call for New Research in the Area of Taxes and Transfers
- A Call for New Research in the Area of National Security
- A Call for New Research in the Area of Macroeconomics
- How CBO Is Responding to Requests for Estimates Related to the Reauthorization of the Farm Bill