CBO’s Long-Term Projections of Labor Force Participation Rates
Presentation
Presentation by Julie Topoleski, the director of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at the NBER’s Summer Institute 2023: Economics of Social Security.
In CBO’s projections, the gap between Social Security’s outlays and revenues widens over the long term. The aging of the population is increasing the number of beneficiaries and continues to be the main driver of the decline in labor force participation in CBO’s projections, a key factor affecting revenues. This presentation briefly describes CBO’s current method for projecting labor force participation rates and some of the questions the agency is considering as it revisits how it makes those projections.
