Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
- Report
Unemployment Insurance: Budgetary History and Projections
CBO examines trends in revenues and outlays associated with unemployment insurance and provides information about how CBO treats that program in its baseline projections and cost estimates.
- Blog Post
Director’s Statement on the Budget and Economic Outlook for 2025 to 2035
CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses the current budget and economic outlook.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is $1.9 trillion this year, and federal debt rises to 118 percent of GDP in 2035. Economic growth slows and inflation declines over the next two years; both remain moderate after 2026.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2024
In its May 2023 budget projections for fiscal year 2024, CBO underestimated revenues by 1 percent and outlays by 6 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit for 2024 was less than the actual amount by 1.1 percent of GDP.
- Report
Effects of Illustrative Policies That Would Increase Tariffs
CBO provides a preliminary assessment of the budgetary, economic, and distributional effects of three policies that would raise tariff rates on goods imported into the United States.
- Report
CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts: 2025 to 2034
This report presents CBO’s projections of revenues and outlays for the 2025–2034 period translated into the framework of the national income and product accounts and their categories of current receipts and expenditures.
- Blog Post
Release Schedule for Key CBO Reports
CBO announces the release schedule for several upcoming publications that will provide insights on the federal budget and the economy.
- Report
Effects of Automatic Stabilizers on the Federal Budget: 2024 to 2034
CBO provides estimates of the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of federal budget deficits without them—back to 1974 and forward to 2034.
- Presentation
How CBO Projects Tariff Revenues
CBO describes how it projects tariff revenues and explains how, and when, it produces estimates of the effects of changes in tariff rates.
- Report
Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2025
CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs in 2025 in two ways—following procedures prescribed by the Federal Credit Reform Act and using a fair-value approach, which measures the market value of the government’s obligations.