Outlook for the Budget and the Economy
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Effects of Automatic Stabilizers on the Federal Budget: 2026 to 2036
CBO provides estimates of the budgetary effects of automatic stabilizers—as well as the size of federal budget deficits without them—over the past 50 years and in CBO's current economic forecast from 2026 to 2036.
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An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Revenues From 1982 to 2025
CBO compares the baseline projections of federal revenues it has made since 1982 with actual revenues.
- Blog Post
CBO’s Updated Budgetary Projections of Tariffs as of July 31, 2026
Changes in trade policy through July 31, 2026, result in projected total deficits that are $0.9 trillion larger over the 2027–2036 period than they were in CBO’s February 2026 baseline projections.
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Developments in CBO's Projections for Medicare Part D
CBO provides current information about the budgetary effects of drug provisions in the 2022 Reconciliation Act; the effects of drug price negotiation, inflation rebates, and the Medicare Part D redesign; and ongoing updates to CBO's models.
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Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2027
CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs in 2027 in two ways—following procedures prescribed by the Federal Credit Reform Act and using a fair-value approach, which measures the market value of the government’s obligations.
- Blog Post
Revenue Collections Through the Individual Income Tax Filing Season
Collections of federal revenues from October 2025 to mid-May 2026 totaled $3.5 trillion, about $50 billion (or 1 percent) less than would be expected on the basis of CBO's February 2026 baseline projections.
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How Changes in Discretionary Funding for the Budget Year Affect Outlays, 2027 to 2036: An Interactive Tool
This tool is a simplified version of the model that CBO uses to estimate baseline outlays from discretionary budget authority and to develop cost estimates for legislation that authorizes or provides discretionary appropriations.
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Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036
The Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth of the Senate Committee on Finance convened a hearing at which CBO's Director testified. This document provides CBO's answers to questions submitted for the record.
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How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget, 2026 to 2036: An Interactive Tool
This tool allows users to define and analyze alternative economic scenarios and see how federal revenues, outlays, and deficits and debt under those scenarios might differ from outcomes in CBO's 10-year budget projections.
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How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2026 to 2036
To show how economic conditions affect its budget projections, CBO analyzed how revenues, outlays, and deficits might change if the values of key economic variables differed from those in the agency's forecast.