Economy
- Blog Post
Director’s Statement on the Budget and Economic Outlook for 2025 to 2035
CBO’s Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses the current budget and economic outlook.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is $1.9 trillion this year, and federal debt rises to 118 percent of GDP in 2035. Economic growth slows and inflation declines over the next two years; both remain moderate after 2026.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2024
In its May 2023 budget projections for fiscal year 2024, CBO underestimated revenues by 1 percent and outlays by 6 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit for 2024 was less than the actual amount by 1.1 percent of GDP.
- Report
Artificial Intelligence and Its Potential Effects on the Economy and the Federal Budget
CBO provides an overview of the channels through which the adoption of artificial intelligence could affect the U.S. economy and the federal budget.
- Working Paper
Revisiting the Relationship Between Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates: Working Paper 2024-05
This working paper extends a previous CBO analysis that estimates the relationship between federal government debt and long-term interest rates, a key parameter in the agency’s long-run projections of interest rates.
- Report
The Risks of Climate Change to the United States in the 21st Century
CBO assesses how climate change will pose risks to the United States through its effects on economic activity, real estate and financial markets, human health, biodiversity, immigration, and national security.
- Report
CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2027
CBO provides details about its latest projections of the economy through 2027. Those projections reflect economic developments and current law as of December 4, 2024.
- Report
Effects of Illustrative Policies That Would Increase Tariffs
CBO provides a preliminary assessment of the budgetary, economic, and distributional effects of three policies that would raise tariff rates on goods imported into the United States.
- Report
Extending Medicaid and CHIP Coverage for Children: Long-Run Budgetary Effects of the President’s 2025 Budget Proposal
CBO estimates how expanding certain children’s eligibility for Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program over the next 10 years would affect the U.S. economy and the federal budget through the end of the century.
- Report
CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts: 2025 to 2034
This report presents CBO’s projections of revenues and outlays for the 2025–2034 period translated into the framework of the national income and product accounts and their categories of current receipts and expenditures.