Economy
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Presentation
How CBO Projects Corporate Income Tax Revenues
CBO describes how it projects corporate income tax revenues, focusing on how it maps economic projections of corporate profits to projections of the corporate income tax base.
- Presentation
CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Budget Projections
Presentation by Molly Dahl, CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit Chief, at the American Enterprise Institute’s panel discussion “Methodologies in Fiscal, Economic, and Health Spending Projections.”
- Presentation
The U.S. Economic Outlook
Presentation by Richard DeKaser, CBO’s Director of Macroeconomic Analysis, to Economic and Financial Counselors from the European Union.
- Blog Post
Latest Presentations
CBO Director Phillip Swagel discusses his most recent presentations on the U.S. economic and fiscal outlook.
- Report
CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts: 2023 to 2033
This report presents CBO’s projections of revenues and outlays for the 2023–2033 period translated into the framework of the national income and product accounts and their categories of current receipts and expenditures.
- Presentation
CBO’s Long-Term Projections of Labor Force Participation Rates
Presentation by Julie Topoleski, the director of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at the NBER’s Summer Institute 2023: Economics of Social Security.
- Report
An Update to the Economic Outlook: 2023 to 2025
In CBO’s latest projections, economic growth slows and then picks up over the 2023–2025 period. That initial slowdown in economic growth drives up unemployment. Inflation continues to gradually decline.
- Blog Post
A Call for New Research in the Area of Macroeconomics
To enhance its work for the Congress, CBO is looking for new research that illuminates the factors driving trends in productivity growth and interest rates on Treasury securities, and the effects of fiscal policy on broad economic outcomes.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.