- Working Paper
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
CBO describes how it projects corporate income tax revenues, focusing on how it maps economic projections of corporate profits to projections of the corporate income tax base.
Presentation by Molly Dahl, CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit Chief, at the American Enterprise Institute’s panel discussion “Methodologies in Fiscal, Economic, and Health Spending Projections.”
Presentation by Richard DeKaser, CBO’s Director of Macroeconomic Analysis, to Economic and Financial Counselors from the European Union.
- Blog Post
CBO Director Phillip Swagel discusses his most recent presentations on the U.S. economic and fiscal outlook.
CBO’s Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts: 2023 to 2033
This report presents CBO’s projections of revenues and outlays for the 2023–2033 period translated into the framework of the national income and product accounts and their categories of current receipts and expenditures.
Presentation by Julie Topoleski, the director of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at the NBER’s Summer Institute 2023: Economics of Social Security.
In CBO’s latest projections, economic growth slows and then picks up over the 2023–2025 period. That initial slowdown in economic growth drives up unemployment. Inflation continues to gradually decline.
- Blog Post
To enhance its work for the Congress, CBO is looking for new research that illuminates the factors driving trends in productivity growth and interest rates on Treasury securities, and the effects of fiscal policy on broad economic outcomes.
CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.