Economy
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055
Extending the 10-year budget projections it published on January 17, 2025, CBO projects that federal debt held by the public, boosted by sustained deficits, will grow far beyond any previously recorded level over the next 30 years.
- Report
Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, March 2025
CBO estimates that if the debt limit remains unchanged, the government’s ability to borrow using established "extraordinary measures" will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025.
- Report
Projections of Deficits and Debt Under Alternative Scenarios for the Budget and Interest Rates
CBO analyzed the effects of alternative budget scenarios in which provisions of the 2017 tax act were extended and the average interest rate on federal debt increased.
- Report
How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2025 to 2035
To show how variations in economic conditions might affect its budget projections, CBO analyzed how revenues, outlays, and deficits might change if the values of key economic variables differed from those in the agency’s forecast.
- Interactive
Workbook for How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2025 to 2035
This workbook allows users to define and analyze alternative economic scenarios by specifying differences in the values of four economic variables relative to the values underlying CBO’s January 2025 projections.
- Presentation
Effects of Federal Borrowing on Interest Rates and Treasury Markets
Presentation by Jaeger Nelson, CBO’s Fiscal Studies Unit Chief, at the Hoover Institution’s Fiscal Policy Initiative: The Economic Consequences of U.S. Fiscal Policy Trends.
- Blog Post
Upcoming and Recent Speaking Engagements
CBO's Director, Phillip Swagel, discusses his upcoming and recent speaking engagements about the agency’s projections for the federal budget and the U.S. economy and the overall fiscal outlook.
- Working Paper
The Effects of Climate Change on GDP in the 21st Century: Working Paper 2025-02
This working paper provides an estimate of a probability distribution of changes in gross domestic product in the year 2100 resulting from changes in temperature.
- Working Paper
Understanding the Relationship Between Changes to Federal Fiscal Policy and Near-Term Real GDP Growth: Working Paper 2025-01
This working paper introduces two measures that highlight the relationship between changes in federal fiscal policy and economic growth and includes projections of those measures through fiscal year 2026.
- Report
Additional Information About the Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035
CBO provides additional details about the economic forecast it published on January 17, 2025, in The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035.