On February 10, the Administration transmitted its annual set of budgetary proposals to the Congress. CBO estimates that in the coming decade deficits under those proposals would be smaller and debt held by the public would be lower than amounts in CBO’s baseline projections—but larger than the Administration projected. CBO’s estimates do not account for changes to the nation’s economic or fiscal outlook arising from the recent public health emergency.
On February 10, 2020, the Administration transmitted its annual set of budgetary proposals to the Congress. In this report, the Congressional Budget Office examines how those proposals, if enacted, would affect budgetary outcomes over the 2020–2030 period relative to CBO’s most recent baseline budget projections.
CBO’s baseline budget projections and its analysis of the Administration’s proposals are based on the economic forecast that the agency developed in January 2020, and they incorporate legislation enacted through March 6, 2020, as well as technical adjustments based on certain new information. They do not account for changes to the nation’s economic or fiscal outlook arising from the recent public health emergency.
Compared with CBO’s baseline projections, the deficit under the President’s proposals would be smaller in every year between 2021 and 2030, according to estimates by CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation. The cumulative deficit over that period would be $2.1 trillion smaller than the $13.1 trillion in CBO’s most recent baseline.
Measured relative to the size of the economy, deficits would average 4 percent of gross domestic product over the 10-year period. The projected deficits are almost twice what the Administration estimates, mostly because CBO projects lower revenues over the period as a result of differences between its economic forecast and the Administration’s.