Long-Term Economic Analysis
- Report
Projections of Deficits and Debt Under an Alternative Scenario for the Budget
CBO analyzed the effects of an alternative budget scenario in which certain provisions of the 2017 tax act were extended permanently and revenues were reduced by additional amounts.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055
Extending the 10-year budget projections it published on January 17, 2025, CBO projects that federal debt held by the public, boosted by sustained deficits, will grow far beyond any previously recorded level over the next 30 years.
- Working Paper
The Effects of Climate Change on GDP in the 21st Century: Working Paper 2025-02
This working paper provides an estimate of a probability distribution of changes in gross domestic product in the year 2100 resulting from changes in temperature.
- Report
The Risks of Climate Change to the United States in the 21st Century
CBO assesses how climate change will pose risks to the United States through its effects on economic activity, real estate and financial markets, human health, biodiversity, immigration, and national security.
- Report
Extending Medicaid and CHIP Coverage for Children: Long-Run Budgetary Effects of the President’s 2025 Budget Proposal
CBO estimates how expanding certain children’s eligibility for Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program over the next 10 years would affect the U.S. economy and the federal budget through the end of the century.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed the effects on the budget and the economy of eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s extended baseline—six that vary economic conditions and two that vary budgetary conditions.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054
The federal budget deficit increases significantly in relation to gross domestic product over the next 30 years, in CBO’s projections, pushing federal debt held by the public far beyond any previously recorded level.
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Long-Term Budget Projections on March 20
CBO will publish "The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054" on March 20 at 2 p.m. The report will provide projections of federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt for the next 30 years.
- Presentation
CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Budget Projections
Presentation by Molly Dahl, CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit Chief, at the American Enterprise Institute’s panel discussion “Methodologies in Fiscal, Economic, and Health Spending Projections.”
- Presentation
CBO’s Long-Term Projections of Labor Force Participation Rates
Presentation by Julie Topoleski, the director of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at the NBER’s Summer Institute 2023: Economics of Social Security.