Taxes
- Working Paper
A Simplified Model of How Macroeconomic Changes Affect the Federal Budget: Working Paper 2020-01
CBO uses the budgetary feedback model (BFM) to estimate how changes in the macroeconomy might affect the federal budget. This paper describes how the BFM is constructed, how it is used in CBO's dynamic analyses, and the model's limitations.
- Working Paper
The Effect of Tax-Motivated Transfer Pricing on U.S. Aggregate Trade Statistics: Working Paper 2019-05
In this working paper, CBO analyzes how corporate income tax rates affect flows of trade between the affiliates of multinationals—known as related-party trade—to examine whether transfer prices are sensitive to tax differentials.
- Working Paper
Sources and Preparation of Data Used in HISIM2—CBO’s Health Insurance Simulation Model: Working Paper 2019-04
CBO developed a new version its health insurance simulation model, HISIM2, including using new sources of input data. This paper describes the new input data and the methods for adjusting and adding to those data to form the sample used in HISIM2.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Model for Forecasting Business Investment: Working Paper 2018-09
This paper presents CBO’s model of business investment, compares it with other models of investment, shows how the model is estimated, and discusses how CBO uses the model to forecast investment.
- Working Paper
Fiscal Substitution of Investment for Highway Infrastructure: Working Paper 2018-08
The federal government provides grants to state and local governments for their transportation infrastructure. State and local governments use some of those funds to replace funds that they would have provided for such investment.
- Working Paper
How CBO Adjusts for Survey Underreporting of Transfer Income in Its Distributional Analyses: Working Paper 2018-07
CBO’s analysis of the distribution of household income relies on data from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS). This paper describes how CBO adjusts for the underreporting of government transfers by CPS respondents.
- Working Paper
How Nominal Foreign Currency Depreciation Against the U.S. Dollar Affects U.S. Wealth: Working Paper 2018-05
This paper examines how a 20 percent depreciation of foreign currencies with respect to the U.S. dollar affects the wealth of U.S. residents and evaluates how that effect would be distributed across U.S. households by income group.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04
Describing the methods used to produce CBO’s projections of labor force participation rates, this paper examines the recent trends in the overall and prime-age labor force participation rates and whether those trends persist over 10 years.
- Working Paper
Estimating and Projecting Potential Output Using CBO’s Forecasting Growth Model: Working Paper 2018-03
This paper documents CBO’s model of potential output. It describes the data, analytic methods, and modeling framework used to estimate historical values of the components of potential output and to project those values into the future.
- Working Paper
How CBO Produces Its 10-Year Economic Forecast: Working Paper 2018-02
This paper describes how CBO produces its semiannual economic forecast, including background analysis, preliminary forecasts, and internal and external review. It also describes the large-scale macro model used to produce the forecast.