Employment and Labor Markets
- Working Paper
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget: Working Paper 2023-07
On a present-value basis, CBO estimates that long-term fiscal effects of Medicaid spending on children could offset half or more of the program’s initial outlays, depending on sets of reasonable parameter values.
- Working Paper
The Effects of Work Requirements on the Employment and Income of TANF Participants: Working Paper 2023-03
This working paper examines how Alabama’s recent expansion of its TANF work requirement to the parents of children between the ages of 6 months and 11 months affects their employment and income.
- Working Paper
A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05
CBO developed a Markov-switching model to help incorporate asymmetric dynamics into macroeconomic projections and cost estimates that require simulations of the national unemployment rate.
- Working Paper
Discrete Choice Models for Estimating Labor Supply: Working Paper 2021-04
This paper evaluates discrete choice models as tools for analyzing the effects of tax and transfer policies on labor supply.
- Working Paper
Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output: Working Paper 2020-07
This paper describes key methods that the Congressional Budget Office used to estimate the effects on economic output of the laws enacted in response to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic.
- Working Paper
Labor Market Effects of Tax Changes in Times of High and Low Unemployment: Working Paper 2020-05
The results of this analysis indicate that tax changes have significant effects on labor market outcomes, but those effects vary depending on the state of the economy at the time a tax change is implemented.
- Working Paper
Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07
This paper studies the current state of inflation dynamics using a Phillips curve model, assesses the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations, and analyzes the sensitivity of inflation to cyclical fluctuations of economic conditions.
- Working Paper
The Effect of the Employer Match and Defaults on Federal Workers’ Savings Behavior in the Thrift Savings Plan: Working Paper 2019-06
This paper develops an empirical model to forecast the effects on employee contribution rates and on employer costs if the federal government changed the employer match or the default contribution rate for participants in the Thrift Savings Plan.
- Working Paper
Comparing the Effects of Current Pay and Defined Benefit Pensions on Employee Retention: Working Paper 2018-06
This working paper compares how cuts to pension benefits and reductions in current pay caused by higher employee contributions affect retention by examining changes in resignation rates, retirement rates, and job tenure.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04
Describing the methods used to produce CBO’s projections of labor force participation rates, this paper examines the recent trends in the overall and prime-age labor force participation rates and whether those trends persist over 10 years.