Employment and Labor Markets
The life-cycle growth model is one model that CBO uses to estimate the long-term effects of changes in fiscal policy. For example, the model can analyze the effects of changes to the Social Security system.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
- Cost Estimate
As ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs on January 29, 2019
CBO Director Keith Hall testifies about The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029 before the Senate Budget Committee.
In CBO’s projections, deficits remain large by historical standards, and federal debt grows to equal 93 percent of GDP by 2029. As the effects of fiscal stimulus wane, projected economic growth falls back below the historical average.
This workbook allows users to enter an alternative scenario for productivity growth, labor force growth, inflation, or interest rates and see estimates of revenues, several types of spending, and deficits under those scenarios.
CBO estimates that the partial shutdown delayed $18 billion in federal spending and suspended some federal services, thus lowering the projected level of real GDP in the first quarter of 2019 by $8 billion (in 2019 dollars), or 0.2 percent.
In this report, CBO projects, on the basis of current law, marginal federal tax rates on labor income from 2018 through 2028. So that current trends can be understood in a historical context, the projections are accompanied by rates from 1962.
CBO periodically issues a volume of options—this year’s installment presents 121—that would decrease federal spending or increase federal revenues. CBO’s website allows users to filter options by topic, date, and other categories.
On November 17, 2018, Justin Falk and Nadia Karamcheva, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies Division, presented at the National Tax Association’s 111th Annual Conference on Taxation.