Economy
- Working Paper
Federal Reinsurance for Terrorism Risk and Its Effects on the Budget: Working Paper 2020-04
This paper describes CBO’s methods for estimating the costs of the federal terrorism risk insurance program. It also discusses how estimates of the program’s budgetary effects would differ if they were produced using accrual-based measures rather than cash-based measures.
- Working Paper
CBO's Oil Price Forecasting Record: Working Paper 2020-03
Oil prices are one of the economic variables that underlie CBO's projections of the federal budget. This paper describes CBO's methods to forecast oil prices and evaluates the quality of the agency's historical forecasts.
- Working Paper
A Simplified Model of How Macroeconomic Changes Affect the Federal Budget: Working Paper 2020-01
CBO uses the budgetary feedback model (BFM) to estimate how changes in the macroeconomy might affect the federal budget. This paper describes how the BFM is constructed, how it is used in CBO's dynamic analyses, and the model's limitations.
- Working Paper
Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07
This paper studies the current state of inflation dynamics using a Phillips curve model, assesses the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations, and analyzes the sensitivity of inflation to cyclical fluctuations of economic conditions.
- Working Paper
The Effect of Tax-Motivated Transfer Pricing on U.S. Aggregate Trade Statistics: Working Paper 2019-05
In this working paper, CBO analyzes how corporate income tax rates affect flows of trade between the affiliates of multinationals—known as related-party trade—to examine whether transfer prices are sensitive to tax differentials.
- Working Paper
The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01
On average over the long term, each increase of 1 percentage point in federal debt as a percentage of GDP boosts interest rates by 2 to 3 basis points, CBO estimates.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Model for Forecasting Business Investment: Working Paper 2018-09
This paper presents CBO’s model of business investment, compares it with other models of investment, shows how the model is estimated, and discusses how CBO uses the model to forecast investment.
- Working Paper
Fiscal Substitution of Investment for Highway Infrastructure: Working Paper 2018-08
The federal government provides grants to state and local governments for their transportation infrastructure. State and local governments use some of those funds to replace funds that they would have provided for such investment.
- Working Paper
How Nominal Foreign Currency Depreciation Against the U.S. Dollar Affects U.S. Wealth: Working Paper 2018-05
This paper examines how a 20 percent depreciation of foreign currencies with respect to the U.S. dollar affects the wealth of U.S. residents and evaluates how that effect would be distributed across U.S. households by income group.
- Working Paper
CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04
Describing the methods used to produce CBO’s projections of labor force participation rates, this paper examines the recent trends in the overall and prime-age labor force participation rates and whether those trends persist over 10 years.