Economy
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034
In CBO’s projections, federal budget deficits total $20 trillion over the 2025–2034 period and federal debt held by the public reaches 116 percent of GDP. Economic growth slows to 1.5 percent in 2024 and then continues at a moderate pace.
- Presentation
The Economic Outlook for 2024 to 2034 in 19 Slides
This slide deck highlights CBO’s key findings about the outlook for the economy as described in its new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.
- Report
Testimony on the Accuracy of CBO’s Recent Baseline Projections
CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies before the House Committee on the Budget.
- Report
Effects of No GDP Growth on Federal Deficits
CBO was asked what the effects on federal deficits would be if the economy was stagnant over two years. The agency created two scenarios with no growth of gross domestic product adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.
- Interactive
How Increasing the Federal Minimum Wage Could Affect Employment and Family Income
This interactive tool, updated in January 30, 2024, allows users to explore how various policies to increase the federal minimum wage would affect earnings, employment, family income, and poverty.
- Blog Post
CBO to Release Budget and Economic Outlook on February 7
CBO will release "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034" at 2 p.m. EST on February 7.
- Report
CBO’s Current View of the Economy and the Implications for the Federal Budget and for Workers
CBO responds to questions about the agency's current view of economic growth and interest rates and the implications of that view for the federal budget—as well as about the implications of inflation for workers.
- Report
CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2023 to 2025
CBO provides details about the agency's most recent projections of the economy through 2025, which reflect economic developments as of December 5, 2023.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2023
In its May 2022 projections for fiscal year 2023, CBO overestimated revenues by 11 percent and underestimated outlays by 9 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal deficit for 2023 was less than the actual amount by 3.9 percent of GDP.
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.