Budget
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Working Paper
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget: Working Paper 2023-07
On a present-value basis, CBO estimates that long-term fiscal effects of Medicaid spending on children could offset half or more of the program’s initial outlays, depending on sets of reasonable parameter values.
- Working Paper
The Welfare Effects of Debt: Crowding Out and Risk Shifting: Working Paper 2022-10
This paper extends a 2019 analysis by Olivier Blanchard by separating total estimated welfare effects of debt into crowding-out and risk-shifting components and estimates the effects of those components under alternative assumptions about technology and preferences.
- Working Paper
Current Work on the Distributional Analysis of Household Income Resulting From Policy Changes: Working Paper 2022-09
This paper introduces a standardized framework to analyze how policy changes alter the distribution of household income to complement CBO’s analyses of policy changes’ budgetary and economic effects.
- Working Paper
The Congressional Budget Office’s Small-Scale Policy Model: Working Paper 2022-08
CBO's small-scale policy model determines in one model the short-run demand-driven responses and long-run supply-driven responses to policy changes. It also makes short- and long-run responses depend on the fiscal policy under study.
- Working Paper
Quantifying the Uncertainty of Long-Term Economic Projections: Working Paper 2022-07
This paper presents a practical method for assessing the uncertainty of long-term economic projections.
- Working Paper
A Markov-Switching Model of the Unemployment Rate: Working Paper 2022-05
CBO developed a Markov-switching model to help incorporate asymmetric dynamics into macroeconomic projections and cost estimates that require simulations of the national unemployment rate.
- Working Paper
Budgetary Implications of Economic Scenarios With Higher and Lower Interest Rates: Working Paper 2022-04
This paper reports CBO’s projections of economic and budgetary outcomes under two scenarios with divergent paths for interest rates.
- Working Paper
How CBO Estimates the Market Risk of Federal Credit Programs: Working Paper 2021-14
This paper describes the methods and data that CBO uses to estimate the cost of market risk for three categories of federal credit programs: housing and real estate loans, student loans and other consumer loans, and commercial loans.
- Working Paper
How Changes in the Distribution of Earnings Affect the Federal Deficit: Working Paper 2021-12
This paper examines how the federal budget deficit would have differed in 2018 under four scenarios that vary the distribution of labor earnings while leaving aggregate earnings unchanged.