Explaining Analytical Methods
- Working Paper
Treasury Duration Supply and Term Premiums: Working Paper 2026-11
In this working paper, the effect of Treasury duration supply on term premiums is estimated by using a dynamic term structure model.
- Report
Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2027
CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs in 2027 in two ways—following procedures prescribed by the Federal Credit Reform Act and using a fair-value approach, which measures the market value of the government’s obligations.
- Working Paper
Estimating the Budgetary Cost of U.S. Commitments to the International Monetary Fund: Working Paper 2026-02
Using a fair-value approach, CBO estimates that the cost of increasing the United States' financial commitment to the International Monetary Fund is about 1.36 percent of the country's current commitment.
- Working Paper
Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Macroeconomic Effects of the 2025 Reconciliation Act: Working Paper 2026-01
The 2025 reconciliation act included a wide range of provisions that affect policies governing federal revenues and spending. This working paper describes the key methods that CBO used to estimate the law's macroeconomic effects.
- Report
Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2026
CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs in 2026 in two ways—following procedures prescribed by the Federal Credit Reform Act and using a fair-value approach, which measures the market value of the government's obligations.
- Working Paper
A Survey-Based Shifting-Endpoint Dynamic Term Structure Model of Interest Rates: Working Paper 2025-03
This working paper presents a dynamic term structure model of interest rates that features a shifting endpoint and incorporates survey forecasts of interest rates to sharpen the model’s implied forecasts and estimate trend interest rates.
- Report
Seven Things to Know About CBO's Budgetary Treatment of Potential Changes to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
CBO addresses seven key issues that might arise as it estimates the budgetary effects of potential legislation or administrative actions that could result in releasing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from government control.
- Report
How CBO Uses Discount Rates to Estimate the Present Value of Future Costs or Savings
CBO describes how it selects and uses discount rates to produce estimates for a wide range of federal activities that can have budgetary effects far into the future.
- Report
Estimates of the Cost of Federal Credit Programs in 2025
CBO estimates the costs of federal credit programs in 2025 in two ways—following procedures prescribed by the Federal Credit Reform Act and using a fair-value approach, which measures the market value of the government’s obligations.
- Report
Flood Insurance in Communities at Risk of Flooding
CBO examines how the share of properties at risk of flooding that are covered by policies purchased through the National Flood Insurance Program varies across communities with different economic and demographic characteristics.