Accuracy of Projections
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Presentation
How CBO Projects Corporate Income Tax Revenues
CBO describes how it projects corporate income tax revenues, focusing on how it maps economic projections of corporate profits to projections of the corporate income tax base.
- Presentation
How CBO Acquires Data, Evaluates Its Estimates, and Makes Its Work Transparent
Presentation by Mark Hadley, CBO's Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel, for an annual seminar of the European Centre for Parliamentary Research and Documentation.
- Report
An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Outlays From 1984 to 2021
In this report, CBO uses various measures to assess the quality of its past projections of federal outlays. The analysis focuses on three fiscal years within each projection period: the budget year, the 6th year, and the 11th year.
- Report
CBO Explains How It Develops the Budget Baseline
The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 requires CBO to produce an annual report on federal spending, revenues, and deficits or surpluses. This document provides answers to questions about how CBO prepares those baseline budget projections.
- Report
CBO’s Projections of Federal Health Care Spending
In a letter to Senator Whitehouse, CBO gauges the accuracy of its projections of federal health care spending over time. In 2010, CBO overestimated mandatory spending for health care in its projections for the 2010–2020 period.
- Presentation
CBO’s Projections of Realized Capital Gains Subject to the Individual Income Tax
This slide deck provides additional information about CBO’s February 2023 baseline projections of capital gains realizations, which decrease from an estimated high of 8.7 percent of GDP in 2021 down to 3.7 percent of GDP by 2033.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2022
In its July 2021 projections for fiscal year 2022, CBO underestimated revenues by 10 percent and outlays by 5 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit for 2022 was more than the actual amount by 0.8 percent of GDP.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2021
In its March 2020 projections for fiscal year 2021, CBO underestimated revenues by 15 percent and overestimated outlays by 4 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit in 2021 was more than the actual amount by 3.9 percent of GDP.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2020
In its 2019 projections for fiscal year 2020, CBO underestimated revenues by 9 percent and outlays by 3 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit in 2020 was more than the actual amount by 0.5 percent of GDP.