Accuracy of Projections
- Report
An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Revenues From 1982 to 2025
CBO compares the baseline projections of federal revenues it has made since 1982 with actual revenues.
- Blog Post
Revenue Collections Through the Individual Income Tax Filing Season
Collections of federal revenues from October 2025 to mid-May 2026 totaled $3.5 trillion, about $50 billion (or 1 percent) less than would be expected on the basis of CBO's February 2026 baseline projections.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO's Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2025
In its June 2024 projections for fiscal year 2025, CBO underestimated revenues by 6 percent and outlays by 2 percent. The agency overestimated the federal budget deficit by 0.7 percent of GDP.
- Blog Post
CBO Releases Planned for Early 2026
CBO announces what to expect in the coming weeks as the agency begins the new calendar year with a series of reports that offers updated insights into the nation's demographic trends, economic outlook, and budgetary conditions.
- Presentation
CBO's Estimates of the 2017 Tax Act: Growth and Revenues
Presentation by Phillip Swagel, CBO's Director, at the 40th Annual National Bureau of Economic Research Tax Policy and the Economy Conference.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2024
In its May 2023 budget projections for fiscal year 2024, CBO underestimated revenues by 1 percent and outlays by 6 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal budget deficit for 2024 was less than the actual amount by 1.1 percent of GDP.
- Report
An Evaluation of CBO’s Projections of Deficits and Debt From 1984 to 2023
CBO assesses the quality of the baseline projections of deficits and debt that it has made each spring from 1984 to 2023.
- Report
Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing on the Oversight of CBO
The House Committee on the Budget convened a hearing at which Phillip L. Swagel, CBO's Director, testified about the work of CBO. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.
- Report
Testimony on the Accuracy of CBO’s Recent Baseline Projections
CBO Director Phillip Swagel testifies before the House Committee on the Budget.
- Report
The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2023
In its May 2022 projections for fiscal year 2023, CBO overestimated revenues by 11 percent and underestimated outlays by 9 percent. CBO’s projection of the federal deficit for 2023 was less than the actual amount by 3.9 percent of GDP.