Dynamic Analysis
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Working Paper
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget: Working Paper 2023-07
On a present-value basis, CBO estimates that long-term fiscal effects of Medicaid spending on children could offset half or more of the program’s initial outlays, depending on sets of reasonable parameter values.
- Working Paper
Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack: Working Paper 2023-05
This paper provides evidence that supply disruptions, low economic slack, and the interaction of restrained supply with low slack each amplify the effects of expansionary fiscal policies on inflation.
- Working Paper
Economic Effects of Five Illustrative Single-Payer Health Care Systems: Working Paper 2022-02
CBO used a general-equilibrium, overlapping-generations model to analyze the economic and distributional implications of five illustrative single-payer health care systems. The working paper builds on previous CBO studies about single-payer health care systems.
- Working Paper
A Simplified Model of How Macroeconomic Changes Affect the Federal Budget: Working Paper 2020-01
CBO uses the budgetary feedback model (BFM) to estimate how changes in the macroeconomy might affect the federal budget. This paper describes how the BFM is constructed, how it is used in CBO's dynamic analyses, and the model's limitations.
- Working Paper
How CBO Estimates the Effects of the Affordable Care Act on the Labor Market: Working Paper 2015-09
This working paper describes the methods and calculations CBO used in its August 2015 baseline projections to estimate the effects of the Affordable Care Act on the labor market.
- Working Paper
The Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Policy Analysis in the United States: Working Paper 2015-02
This paper asks: What models do economists use to estimate the fiscal multiplier (for proposed changes in taxes and government spending)? Why do estimates of it vary widely? And how can economists use those estimates to analyze U.S. economic policy?
- Working Paper
The Long-Run Effects of Federal Budget Deficits on National Saving and Private Domestic Investment: Working Paper 2014-02
This paper reviews CBO’s estimates of the effects of changes in federal deficits on national saving and private domestic investment.
- Working Paper
A Review of Recent Research on Labor Supply Elasticities: Working Paper 2012-12
A Review of Recent Research on Labor Supply Elasticities
- Working Paper
Review of Estimates of the Frisch Elasticity of Labor Supply: Working Paper 2012-13
Review of Estimates of the Frisch Elasticity of Labor Supply