Dynamic Analysis
- Report
Testimony on the 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlook
CBO Director Keith Hall testifies about CBO’s 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlook before the Committee on the Budget, United States Senate.
- Report
The 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlook
If current laws remained generally unchanged, federal debt held by the public would exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2040 and continue on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
- Presentation
Dynamic Scoring at CBO
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, Assistant Director for CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the Conference of Business Economists.
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Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified in the Conference Report on the 2016 Budget Resolution
Under budgetary paths, but not particular policies, specified in the 2016 budget resolution conference report, total debt would be smaller than in CBO’s baseline. Economic output would be lower in the next few years but higher thereafter.
- Report
Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Enzi, March 2015
Under budgetary paths, but not particular policies, specified by Chairman Enzi, total deficits and debt would be smaller than under CBO’s baseline. Economic output would be lower in the next few years but higher thereafter.
- Report
Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified by Chairman Price, March 2015
Under budgetary paths, but not particular policies, specified by Chairman Price, total deficits and debt would be smaller than under CBO’s extended baseline. Economic output would be lower in the next few years but higher thereafter.
- Working Paper
The Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Policy Analysis in the United States: Working Paper 2015-02
This paper asks: What models do economists use to estimate the fiscal multiplier (for proposed changes in taxes and government spending)? Why do estimates of it vary widely? And how can economists use those estimates to analyze U.S. economic policy?
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How CBO Analyzes the Effects of Changes in Federal Fiscal Policies on the Economy
In certain reports and for some major pieces of legislation, CBO analyzes the short- and longer-term effects on the overall economy of changes in federal tax and spending policies. This report explains the methods that CBO uses.
- Report
The Economic Effects of the President’s 2015 Budget
The President’s policies would make U.S. output larger over the next decade than it would be under current law—mostly by changing immigration laws. Such economic effects would feed back into the budget in ways that would reduce deficits.
- Report
The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook
If current laws remained generally unchanged, federal debt held by the public would exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2039 and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.