CBO estimates the deficit for fiscal year 2015 will be $426 billion––$60 billion lower than projected in March. The 10-year budget outlook remains little changed from earlier projections.

The economy is expected to expand modestly this year, at a solid pace in 2016 and 2017, and at a more moderate pace in subsequent years. Over the next few years, that growth is expected to increase hiring and put upward pressure on compensation, inflation, and interest rates.

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The Economic Outlook for 2015 to 2025: An Update in 18 Slides

As it does each year, CBO has estimated the macroeconomic effects of the President’s budget. Under the President’s proposals, U.S. output would be 0.4 percent higher, on average, from 2016 through 2020, and 1.7 percent higher from 2021 through 2025, than under current law. Deficits are projected to be $1.4 trillion smaller over the next decade than they would be under current law.

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CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation have analyzed the main budgetary and economic effects of repealing the Affordable Care Act and concluded that doing so would probably increase federal deficits over the next decade, whether or not macroeconomic feedback to the budget is included. Such feedback would reduce deficits, but would not offset the increases in deficits stemming from the other effects of repealing the ACA.

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Although federal deficits have shrunk markedly in recent years, under current law increased spending for Social Security and major health care programs, along with increasing interest costs, would cause debt to rise steadily over the long term.

The larger deficits would cause federal debt to grow faster than the economy. By 2040, CBO projects, debt would be more than 100 percent of GDP and continue on an upward path—a trend that cannot be sustained indefinitely.

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The 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 25 Slides

CBO has analyzed the effects on the economy stemming from paths for federal revenues and noninterest spending specified in the conference report on the 2016 budget resolution and how those macroeconomic effects in turn would affect the federal budget.

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CBO’s projections in this report do not represent an analysis of any specific policies. Read more about CBO’s role in budget resolutions.

An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025
A Macroeconomic Analysis of the President’s 2016 Budget
Budgetary and Economic Effects of Repealing the Affordable Care Act
The 2015 Long-Term Budget Outlook
Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified in the Conference Report on the 2016 Budget Resolution