Long-Term Budget Analysis
- Blog Post
Short-Term Spending and Long-Term Dynamic Effects
Some federal policies involve short-term expenditures that result in economic and budgetary effects far in the future. CBO has been building analytic capacity to consider a dynamic framework for policies that would have long-term effects.
- Report
An Analysis of the Navy’s Fiscal Year 2024 Shipbuilding Plan
Under the three alternatives in the Navy’s 2024 plan, total shipbuilding costs would average about $34 billion to $36 billion per year (in 2023 dollars) through 2053, CBO estimates, as the Navy built a fleet of 319 to 367 battle force ships.
- Report
Long-Term Implications of the 2024 Future Years Defense Program
CBO analyzes the Department of Defense’s plans for 2024 through 2028 as presented in the 2024 Future Years Defense Program. Under those plans, CBO projects, defense costs would increase by 10 percent between 2028 and 2038.
- Presentation
Health Care and the Federal Budget
Presentation by Chapin White, CBO’s Director of Health Analysis, to the MITRE Health Advisory Council.
- Blog Post
Presentation on the Fiscal Outlook
CBO’s Director Phillip Swagel discusses the presentation he gave Thursday on the fiscal outlook at a Federal Bar Association conference.
- Presentation
CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Budget Projections
Presentation by Molly Dahl, CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit Chief, at the American Enterprise Institute’s panel discussion “Methodologies in Fiscal, Economic, and Health Spending Projections.”
- Report
CBO’s Long-Term Projections of Gross Federal Debt
In response to a request from Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington, CBO provides information about the agency’s long-term projections of gross federal debt. By the end of 2053, such debt is projected to reach 192 percent of GDP.
- Report
Answers to Questions for the Record Following a Hearing on Social Security’s Finances
The Senate Committee on the Budget convened a hearing at which Phillip L. Swagel, CBO's Director, testified about Social Security’s finances. This document provides CBO’s answers to questions submitted for the record.
- Report
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for the Economy and the Budget
CBO analyzed eight scenarios that differ from those underlying the agency’s long-term baseline budget projections—six that vary economic outcomes, one that varies budgetary outcomes, and one that limits Social Security benefits.
- Report
CBO’s 2023 Long-Term Projections for Social Security
In CBO’s projections, spending for Social Security increases relative to GDP over the next 75 years, and the gap between outlays and revenues widens. If combined, the program’s trust funds would be exhausted in fiscal year 2033.