The federal government devotes a substantial and growing share of its budget to benefits for the nation's retirees through Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other programs. According to CBO’s projections, federal spending on the “big three” benefit programs will grow from less than half of all federal spending in 2012 to three-fifths in 2023. CBO projects federal spending for those programs under current law for the next decade and for the longer term, and it analyzes a wide range of proposals to change those programs. (See Health Care for further discussion of CBO’s work on federal health care programs.) Additionally, the exclusion of pension contributions and earnings from taxable income constitutes one of the largest preferences in the federal income tax code. Together with the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation, CBO analyzes the budgetary and economic effects of such tax preferences and potential changes to them.
Retirement
featured work
Long-Term Budget OutlookSep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
Rising Demand for Long-Term Services and Supports for Elderly PeopleJun 2013 - By 2050, one-fifth of the U.S. population will be age 65 or older, up from 12 percent in 2000 and 8 percent in 1950. As a result, expenditures on long-term services and supports for the elderly will rise substantially in the coming decades.
2012 Long-Term Projections for Social SecurityOct 2012 - Over the next 20 years, the population will age and spending on Social Security will increase from about 5 percent of GDP to about 6 percent.
Policy Options for the Social Security Disability Insurance ProgramJul 2012 - The Disability Insurance program provided benefits to 8.3 million disabled workers in 2011. By 2022, CBO projects, the program will provide benefits to over 10 million disabled workers and total spending on benefits to those workers will exceed $190 billion.
Raising the Ages of Eligibility for Medicare and Social SecurityJan 2012 - This issue brief reviews how ages of eligibility affect beneficiaries under current law and how delaying eligibility would affect beneficiaries, the federal budget, and the economy.
CBO's 2011 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: InfographicAug 2011 - CBO's first infographic summarizes some of the agency's most recent projections for Social Security and provides background information on the program.
The Underfunding of State and Local Pension PlansMay 2011 - CBO discusses two approaches to calculating the present value of a plans liabilities.
Social Security Policy OptionsJul 2010 - Annual spending on Social Security payments will regularly exceed the program's tax revenues starting in 2016, if current laws remain in place. This study examines 30 options for policymakers in providing long-term financial stability for Social Security.
Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance—May 2013 Baseline
Social Security Trust Fund—May 2013 Baselinelatest work
Testimony on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
reportSeptember 26, 2013Press Briefing on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
presentationSeptember 23, 2013Medicare and Social Security Payroll Taxes and Benefits for People in Different Birth Cohorts
blog postSeptember 20, 2013How Does Social Security Work?
blog postSeptember 19, 2013Why CBO Changed Its Approach to Projecting Mortality
blog postSeptember 24, 2013The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
reportSeptember 17, 2013Optimal Annuitization with Stochastic Mortality Probabilities: Working Paper 2013-05
working paperJune 26, 2013Rising Demand for Long-Term Services and Supports for Elderly People
reportJune 26, 2013
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