The federal government devotes a substantial and growing share of its budget to benefits for the nation's retirees through Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other programs. According to CBO’s projections, federal spending on the “big three” benefit programs will grow from less than half of all federal spending in 2012 to three-fifths in 2023. CBO projects federal spending for those programs under current law for the next decade and for the longer term, and it analyzes a wide range of proposals to change those programs. (See Health Care for further discussion of CBO’s work on federal health care programs.) Additionally, the exclusion of pension contributions and earnings from taxable income constitutes one of the largest preferences in the federal income tax code. Together with the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation, CBO analyzes the budgetary and economic effects of such tax preferences and potential changes to them.
Retirement
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2012 Long-Term Projections for Social SecurityOct 2012 - Over the next 20 years, the population will age and spending on Social Security will increase from about 5 percent of GDP to about 6 percent.
Long-Term Budget OutlookJun 2012 - The explosive path of federal debt under the fiscal scenario that many budget analysts believe is more representative of fiscal policies that are now or have recently been in effect underscores the need for large policy changes to put the federal government on a sustainable course.
Policy Options for the Social Security Disability Insurance ProgramJul 2012 - The Disability Insurance program provided benefits to 8.3 million disabled workers in 2011. By 2022, CBO projects, the program will provide benefits to over 10 million disabled workers and total spending on benefits to those workers will exceed $190 billion.
Raising the Ages of Eligibility for Medicare and Social SecurityJan 2012 - This issue brief reviews how ages of eligibility affect beneficiaries under current law and how delaying eligibility would affect beneficiaries, the federal budget, and the economy.
CBO's 2011 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: InfographicAug 2011 - CBO's first infographic summarizes some of the agency's most recent projections for Social Security and provides background information on the program.
The Underfunding of State and Local Pension PlansMay 2011 - CBO discusses two approaches to calculating the present value of a plans liabilities.
Social Security Policy OptionsJul 2010 - Annual spending on Social Security payments will regularly exceed the program's tax revenues starting in 2016, if current laws remain in place. This study examines 30 options for policymakers in providing long-term financial stability for Social Security.
Social Security Old-Age and Survivors Insurance—May 2013 Baseline
Social Security Trust Fund—May 2013 Baselinelatest work
Proposal in the President's Budget Request for Fiscal Year 2014 to Use the Chained CPI
data or technical informationMay 17, 2013Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation: CBO's May 2013 Baseline and the President's FY 2014 Budget
data or technical informationMay 17, 2013Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation—May 2013 Baseline
data or technical informationMay 14, 2013Medicare—May 2013 Baseline
data or technical informationMay 14, 2013Military Retirement—May 2013 Baseline
data or technical informationMay 14, 2013Medicare's Payments to Physicians: The Budgetary Impact of Alternative Policies Relative to CBO's May 2013 Baseline
data or technical informationMay 14, 2013Differences Between the Traditional CPI and the Chained CPI
blog postApril 19, 2013How Does Growth in the Cost of Goods and Services for the Elderly Compare to That for the Overall Population?
blog postApril 19, 2013
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