Long-Term Economic Analysis

In addition to projecting economic developments over the next 10 years, CBO also projects economic conditions for the decades ahead—primarily as a part of developing CBO’s Long-Term Budget Outlook. Key factors affecting the long-term economic outlook include the aging of the population, productivity growth, and interest rates. CBO analyzes the long-term economic effects of alternative budget policies as well.

  • Report January 26, 2015

    Under current law, the deficit is projected to hold steady as a percentage of GDP through 2018, but rise thereafter, raising the already high federal debt. The rate of economic growth is projected to be solid in 2015 and the next few years.

  • Report July 15, 2014

    If current laws remained generally unchanged, federal debt held by the public would exceed 100 percent of GDP by 2039 and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.

  • Report December 17, 2013

    Spending on the Social Security program will exceed its dedicated tax revenues, on average, by about 12 percent over the next decade, CBO projects. The gap will grow larger in the 2020s and will exceed 30 percent of revenues by 2030.

  • Graphic August 5, 2011

    CBO's first infographic summarizes some of the agency's most recent projections for Social Security and provides background information on the program.