CBO regularly assesses the state of the economy and the impact on the economy of proposed changes in federal spending and taxes. Analysts prepare economic projections that underlie CBO’s projections for the federal budget and cost estimates for proposed legislation; study major aspects of the economy such as trends in productivity and long-term unemployment; and examine the economic impact of changes in the nation’s tax system or reforms to federal programs.
Economy
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Long-Term Budget OutlookSep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
The Economic Impact of S. 744, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization ActJun 2013 - S. 744 would boost economic output—CBO projects—by 3.3 percent in 2023 and by 5.4 percent in 2033. Employment, investment, and productivity would increase, but average wages would be less than under current law until 2025.
S. 744, Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization ActJun 2013 - Cost estimate for the bill as reported by the Senate Committee on the Judiciary on May 28, 2013, including the amendments made in the star print of June 6, 2013.
The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023Feb 2013 - Under current law, federal debt will stay at historically high levels relative to the economy, CBO projects. Economic growth will be slow in 2013 but pick up thereafter. Even so, the unemployment rate will be above 7.5 percent through 2014.
Macroeconomic Effects of Alternative Budgetary PathsFeb 2013 - CBO examined three budgetary paths that would increase or reduce budget deficits relative to current law. Through 2023, those paths would result in considerably different trajectories of federal debt and the nation’s output and income.
What Accounts for the Slow Growth of the Economy After the Recession?Nov 2012 - During the three years following the recession in 2008 and 2009, the economy’s output grew at less than half the rate seen, on average, during other economic recoveries in the United States since the end of World War II.
Choices for Deficit ReductionNov 2012 - Putting the federal budget on a more sustainable path is likely to require a combination of policies, many of which may stand in stark contrast to policies now in place.
Economic Effects of Policies Contributing to Fiscal Tightening in 2013Nov 2012 - Significant tax increases and spending cuts are slated to take effect in January 2013, sharply reducing the federal budget deficit and causing, by CBO’s estimates, a decline in economic output and an increase in unemployment.
The Economic Impact of the President's 2013 BudgetApr 2012 - CBO analyzes the potential effects of the President's budget on the economy and, in turn, the impact of those macroeconomic effects on the federal budget.
Policies for Increasing Economic Growth and Employment in 2012 and 2013Nov 2011 - Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. Senate
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Economic Effects in 2014 of Eliminating the Automatic Spending Reductions Specified in the Budget Control Act
reportSeptember 26, 2013Testimony on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
reportSeptember 26, 2013Press Briefing on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
presentationSeptember 23, 2013The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
reportSeptember 17, 2013Has the Fundamental Federal Budgetary Challenge Been Addressed?
blog postSeptember 12, 2013The Federal Budget: The Deficit is Down But the Fundamental Challenge Remains
presentationSeptember 12, 2013H.R. 2542, Regulatory Flexibility Improvements Act of 2013
cost estimateSeptember 5, 2013How CBO Projects Income
reportJuly 25, 2013
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