Over the past 40 years, federal revenues have ranged from nearly 21 percent of GDP, in fiscal year 2000, to less than 16 percent, in fiscal years 2009 through 2012; they have averaged about 18 percent of GDP over the four decades. In addition to projecting the future course of federal revenues, CBO analyzes the budgetary and economic effects of various features of the federal tax system and the effects of potential changes to current tax rules.
Taxes
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The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023Feb 2013 - Under current law, federal debt will stay at historically high levels relative to the economy, CBO projects. Economic growth will be slow in 2013 but pick up thereafter. Even so, the unemployment rate will be above 7.5 percent through 2014.
Refundable Tax CreditsJan 2013 - The number and cost of refundable tax credits have grown considerably since 1975. Federal costs (in 2013 dollars) peaked at $238 billion in 2008, but costs will fall to $149 billion in 2013, CBO projects, before reaching $213 billion in 2021.
Taxing Businesses Through the Individual Income TaxDec 2012 - Business activity subject to individual rather than corporate income tax has grown, reducing federal revenues but probably promoting investment.
Effective Marginal Tax Rates for Low- and Moderate-Income WorkersNov 2012 - Effective marginal tax rates among low- and moderate-income workers are about 30 percent, on average, with about one-third of that rate stemming from the federal income tax, more than a third from federal payroll taxes, and the remainder from state income taxes and the phaseout of SNAP benefits.
The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009Jul 2012 - The recent recession has had a substantial impact on income, the amount of taxes owed, and average tax rates. Changes in households’ before-tax income and average tax rates in 2008 and 2009 were substantial and differed markedly across the income distribution.
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S. 743, Marketplace Fairness Act of 2013
cost estimateApril 24, 2013Differences Between the Traditional CPI and the Chained CPI
blog postApril 19, 2013Testimony on Using the Chained CPI to Index Social Security, Other Federal Programs, and the Tax Code for Inflation
reportApril 18, 2013CBO Testifies on Using the Chained CPI to Index Social Security, Other Federal Programs, and the Tax Code for Inflation
blog postApril 18, 2013What Would Be the Effect on the Deficit of Using the Chained CPI to Index Benefit Programs and the Tax Code?
blog postApril 18, 2013H.R. 882, Contracting and Tax Accountability Act of 2013
cost estimateApril 11, 2013H.R. 313, GSA Act of 2013
cost estimateApril 11, 2013H.R. 249, Federal Employee Tax Accountability Act of 2013
cost estimateApril 11, 2013
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