Over the past 40 years, federal revenues have ranged from nearly 21 percent of GDP, in fiscal year 2000, to less than 16 percent, in fiscal years 2009 through 2012; they have averaged about 18 percent of GDP over the four decades. In addition to projecting the future course of federal revenues, CBO analyzes the budgetary and economic effects of various features of the federal tax system and the effects of potential changes to current tax rules.
Taxes
featured work
Long-Term Budget OutlookSep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
The Distribution of Major Tax Expenditures in the Individual Income Tax SystemMay 2013 - In 2013, the benefits of 10 of the largest tax expenditures will equal 11.7 percent of income for households in the lowest income quintile, 9.4 percent for the highest quintile, and under 8 percent for the middle quintiles, CBO estimates.
Effects of a Carbon Tax on the Economy and the EnvironmentMay 2013 - A carbon tax’s effect on the economy depends on how lawmakers would use revenues generated by the tax. The tax would help reduce U.S. emissions but would have only a modest effect on the Earth’s climate without a worldwide effort.
An Analysis of the President’s 2014 BudgetMay 2013 - Enactment of the President’s proposals would, CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation estimate, result in deficits totaling $5.2 trillion between 2014 and 2023, $1.1 trillion less than the cumulative deficit in CBO’s baseline.
Updated Budget Projections: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023May 2013 - A robust increase in revenues projected over the next few years will help shrink deficits through 2015. But deficits are projected to rise later in the decade, partly because of pressures of an aging population and rising health care costs.
The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023Feb 2013 - Under current law, federal debt will stay at historically high levels relative to the economy, CBO projects. Economic growth will be slow in 2013 but pick up thereafter. Even so, the unemployment rate will be above 7.5 percent through 2014.
Refundable Tax CreditsJan 2013 - The number and cost of refundable tax credits have grown considerably since 1975. Federal costs (in 2013 dollars) peaked at $238 billion in 2008, but costs will fall to $149 billion in 2013, CBO projects, before reaching $213 billion in 2021.
Taxing Businesses Through the Individual Income TaxDec 2012 - Business activity subject to individual rather than corporate income tax has grown, reducing federal revenues but probably promoting investment.
Effective Marginal Tax Rates for Low- and Moderate-Income WorkersNov 2012 - Effective marginal tax rates among low- and moderate-income workers are about 30 percent, on average, with about one-third of that rate stemming from the federal income tax, more than a third from federal payroll taxes, and the remainder from state income taxes and the phaseout of SNAP benefits.
The Distribution of Household Income and Federal Taxes, 2008 and 2009Jul 2012 - The recent recession has had a substantial impact on income, the amount of taxes owed, and average tax rates. Changes in households’ before-tax income and average tax rates in 2008 and 2009 were substantial and differed markedly across the income distribution.
latest work
Testimony on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
reportSeptember 26, 2013Press Briefing on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
presentationSeptember 23, 2013The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
reportSeptember 17, 2013Has the Fundamental Federal Budgetary Challenge Been Addressed?
blog postSeptember 12, 2013The Federal Budget: The Deficit is Down But the Fundamental Challenge Remains
presentationSeptember 12, 2013CBO Discusses the Effects of Tax Credits for Electric Vehicles at Energy Conference
blog postJune 24, 2013Effects of Tax Credits for Electric Vehicles
presentationJune 24, 2013Testimony on Means-Tested Programs and Tax Credits for Low-Income Households
reportJune 18, 2013
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