Growth in spending on federal health care programs is one of the central fiscal challenges facing the federal government. That growth is driven by rising enrollment in public programs deriving from the aging of the population coupled with expansions in insurance coverage and by rising health care spending per person (which has slowed recently but, during the past few decades, has significantly outpaced increases in economic output per person). Moreover, rapid growth in spending on health care is a key challenge not only for Medicare, Medicaid, and other federal programs, but also for state and local governments and for the private sector. CBO devotes a large share of its resources to studying proposals that would make narrow or broad changes in the nation’s systems for delivering and financing health care.
Health Care
featured work
A Premium Support System for Medicare: Analysis of Illustrative OptionsSep 2013 - CBO analyzes the ways two illustrative options for a premium support system for Medicare would affect federal spending and beneficiaries’ choices and payments.
Long-Term Budget OutlookSep 2013 - Federal debt would grow to 100 percent of GDP by 2038 under current law, CBO projects, and would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy—a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.
Dual-Eligible Beneficiaries of Medicare and Medicaid: Characteristics, Health Care Spending, and Evolving PoliciesJun 2013 - People eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid benefits—known as “dual-eligible beneficiaries”—are a varied group, but many have extensive health care needs and account for a disproportionate share of spending on Medicare and Medicaid.
Updated Budget Projections: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023May 2013 - A robust increase in revenues projected over the next few years will help shrink deficits through 2015. But deficits are projected to rise later in the decade, partly because of pressures of an aging population and rising health care costs.
Cost Estimate for H.R. 45, a bill to repeal the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and health care-related provisions in the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010May 2013 - Due to time constraints, CBO will not be able to provide a cost estimate for H.R. 45, a bill that would repeal the Affordable Care Act.
CBO’s Estimate of the Net Budgetary Impact of the Affordable Care Act’s Health Insurance Coverage Provisions Has Not Changed Much Over TimeMay 2013 - This blog post describes in more detail CBO’s revised expectations about sources of people’s insurance coverage and the net budgetary impact of those revisions, as reflected in CBO’s May 2013 baseline projections.
Offsetting Effects of Prescription Drug Use on Medicare’s Spending for Medical ServicesNov 2012 - CBO estimates that greater use of prescription drugs by Medicare beneficiaries reduces Medicare’s spending on medical services.
Raising the Excise Tax on Cigarettes: Effects on Health and the Federal BudgetJun 2012 - CBO's study demonstrates the complex links between policies that aim to improve health and effects on the federal budget.
latest work
H.R. 3204, the Drug Quality and Security Act
cost estimateSeptember 27, 2013Testimony on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
reportSeptember 26, 2013Press Briefing on The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook
presentationSeptember 23, 2013Medicare and Social Security Payroll Taxes and Benefits for People in Different Birth Cohorts
blog postSeptember 20, 2013Comment on “Is This Time Different? The Slowdown in Healthcare Spending”
presentationSeptember 19, 2013The Slowdown in Health Care Spending
blog postSeptember 19, 2013Why CBO Changed Its Approach to Projecting Mortality
blog postSeptember 24, 2013A Premium Support System for Medicare: Analysis of Illustrative Options
reportSeptember 18, 2013
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