Long-Term Budget Analysis
- Working Paper
The Effect of Government Debt on Interest Rates: Working Paper 2019-01
On average over the long term, each increase of 1 percentage point in federal debt as a percentage of GDP boosts interest rates by 2 to 3 basis points, CBO estimates.
- Presentation
How CBO Develops the Economic Projections Underlying Its Long-Term Budget Projections
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
- Report
Projected Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2019 to 2028
The Administration’s current plans for U.S. nuclear forces would cost $494 billion over the 2019–2028 period—$94 billion more than CBO’s 2017 estimate for the 2017–2026 period, in part because modernization programs continue to ramp up.
- Report
The Cost of Replacing Today’s Air Force Fleet
CBO projects that the annual cost (in 2018 dollars) of replacing the aircraft in the current fleet, essentially one-for-one, would average $15 billion in the 2020s, $23 billion in the 2030s, and $15 billion in the 2040s.
- Report
CBO's Long-Term Social Security Projections: Changes Since 2017 and Comparisons With the Social Security Trustees' Projections
This report explains the changes to CBO’s long-term Social Security projections since last year and compares CBO’s projections with those of the Social Security Trustees.
- Report
An Analysis of the Navy's Fiscal Year 2019 Shipbuilding Plan
The Navy’s 2019 shipbuilding plan calls for expanding the fleet to 355 battle force ships. On average, implementing the plan would cost 80 percent more per year than the funding for shipbuilding that the Navy has received in recent decades.
- Report
Reducing Primary Deficits Beginning in 2022
CBO provides additional information to Congressman Jodey Arrington regarding the effects of two illustrative scenarios in which the primary deficit is reduced in relation to CBO’s extended baseline beginning in 2022.
- Blog Post
Uncertainty of CBO’s Long-Term Projections
In June, CBO released The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, describing the agency’s projections of federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt over the next 30 years. This post discusses the uncertainty surrounding those projections.
- Blog Post
The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook at a Glance
In June, CBO released The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook, describing the agency’s projections of federal spending, revenues, deficits, and debt over the next 30 years. This post presents some of the key takeaways from that report.
- Presentation
The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook in 25 Slides
These slides summarize CBO’s budget projections as presented in The 2018 Long-Term Budget Outlook.