Explaining Analytical Methods
- Presentation
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
- Working Paper
Conditional Forecasting With a Bayesian Vector Autoregression: Working Paper 2023-08
This paper describes how CBO uses a Bayesian vector autoregression method to generate alternative economic projections to the agency’s baseline.
- Working Paper
Exploring the Effects of Medicaid During Childhood on the Economy and the Budget: Working Paper 2023-07
On a present-value basis, CBO estimates that long-term fiscal effects of Medicaid spending on children could offset half or more of the program’s initial outlays, depending on sets of reasonable parameter values.
- Working Paper
Effects of Fiscal Policy on Inflation: Implications of Supply Disruptions and Economic Slack: Working Paper 2023-05
This paper provides evidence that supply disruptions, low economic slack, and the interaction of restrained supply with low slack each amplify the effects of expansionary fiscal policies on inflation.
- Report
CBO Describes Its Cost-Estimating Process
The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 requires CBO to prepare estimates of the cost of legislation at certain points in the legislative process. This document provides answers to questions about how CBO prepares those cost estimates.
- Working Paper
A Simplified Model of How Macroeconomic Changes Affect the Federal Budget: Working Paper 2020-01
CBO uses the budgetary feedback model (BFM) to estimate how changes in the macroeconomy might affect the federal budget. This paper describes how the BFM is constructed, how it is used in CBO's dynamic analyses, and the model's limitations.
- Presentation
An Overview of CBO’s Microsimulation Tax Model
These slides provide an overview of CBO’s microsimulation tax model.
- Report
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028
In CBO’s projections, the economy grows relatively quickly this year and next and then more slowly in the following several years. The federal budget deficit rises substantially, boosting federal debt to nearly 100 percent of GDP by 2028.